294
FXUS61 KCTP 270703
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
303 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXPANDED COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG & FROST EARLY THIS MORNING
* ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARMER START TO THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL
2) PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRECEDE A COOL
PATTERN SHIFT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND WARMER START TO THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL
THE EXPANDED COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG AND FROST THIS MORNING WAS
LARGELY A FUNCTION OF LOWERING TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
BOARD. THE TREND REMAINS EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND MESONET DATA
WITH RECENT IR SATELLITE INDICATING FOG FORMATION IN THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL VALLEYS. PATCHY FROST IS MOST LIKELY IN THE
OUTLYING RURAL AREAS WHERE MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN IN THE NEARBY CITIES/TOWNS.
AFTER A RELATIVELY CHILLY START, TODAY WILL BE THE PICK
(WARMEST/NICEST DAY) OF THE WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
SENDING MAX TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER VS. SUNDAY. DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE SFC PATTERN ALONG WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTED LEANING LOWER ON DEWPOINTS AND CORRESPONDING MINRH.
--------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
PRECEDE COOL PATTERN SHIFT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN MAY
THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL DATA SUPPORTS TWO PERIODS OF WET
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MORE ROBUST ON
WEDNESDAY TIED TO STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE WITH 48-HR TOTALS IN
THE 0.75-1.50" RANGE ENDING 12Z THURSDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO ADD TO SURPLUSES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHILE
HELPING TO REDUCE RAINFALL DEFICITS IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF CPA
WHERE D1-D2 DROUGHT AREAS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MID-LARGER SCALE
PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (END OF APRIL
INTO EARLY MAY) SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS UNSEASONABLY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN WILL DELIVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (5-15 DEGREES) AND MAINTAIN
DAILY SHOWER CHANCES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND GUSTS 25-35
MPH) THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ODDS FAVOR ADVECTIVE FREEZE OVER
FROST RISK WITH WIND AND CLOUD COVER PLAYING A KEY FACTOR.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO FORM, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE DENSE (VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4SM). THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG IS AT IPT AND LNS,
THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT MDT, UNV, AND AOO AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREAWIDE BY MID-MORNING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A FEW
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN SITES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...REGIONWIDE VFR IN THE MORNING, WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PA LATER IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS/SHOWERS MOVE
IN.
WED...VFR/MVFR EARLY, TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THU...VFR/MVFR FAVORED AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST.
FRI...VFR FAVORED WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO/BOWEN
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