355
FXUS61 KCTP 271859
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 THIS
AFTERNOON
2) PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRECEDE A COOL
PATTERN SHIFT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 THIS AFTERNOON
TODAY WILL BE THE PICK (WARMEST/NICEST DAY) OF THE WEEK WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SENDING MAX TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES HIGHER VS.
SUNDAY. DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SFC PATTERN ALONG WITH STEEP
LLVL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED LEANING LOWER ON DEWPOINTS AND
CORRESPONDING MINRH.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
PRECEDE COOL PATTERN SHIFT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN MAY
THE PREPONDERANCE OF MODEL DATA SUPPORTS TWO PERIODS OF WET
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE MORE ROBUST ON
WEDNESDAY TIED TO STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE WITH 48-HR TOTALS IN
THE 0.75-1.50" RANGE ENDING 12Z THURSDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO ADD TO SURPLUSES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHILE
HELPING TO REDUCE RAINFALL DEFICITS IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF CPA
WHERE D1-D2 DROUGHT AREAS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT. HOWEVER LIKE
WE'VE SEEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN SO FAR THIS YEAR, THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.
SPC D3 MRGL RISK VALID WEDNESDAY CLIPS THE LAURELS AS A 1003 MB
SFC LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST ONLY
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY, CONFINED TO SW PA. NBM HAS
70-80% CHC OF AT LEAST 200 J/KG SBCAPE IN SW PA BUT ONLY A 30%
CHC OF 750+ J/KG. STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST, SO
STORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THEY
MOVE INTO PA. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT
FOR 6-12 HOURS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA AS WE'LL BE BENEATH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MID-LARGER SCALE
PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND (END OF APRIL
INTO EARLY MAY) SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS UNSEASONABLY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN WILL DELIVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (5-15 DEGREES) AND MAINTAIN
DAILY SHOWER CHANCES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND GUSTS 25-35
MPH) THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ODDS FAVOR ADVECTIVE FREEZE OVER
FROST RISK WITH WIND AND CLOUD COVER PLAYING A KEY FACTOR.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER
AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY
RIDGETOP WINDS EMERGING AFTER SUNSET AS A LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST. LLWS IS MOST LIKELY AT
KBFD, CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THIS JET, WITH SHEAR BEING
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT KJST/KAOO/KUNV.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL LOWER WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS
RAIN/SHOWERS MOVE IN & MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR/IFR FAVORED DUE TO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS & RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
THU...VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST, BECOMING
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRI...VFR FAVORED WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SAT...VFR FAVORED WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SHOWERS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...TEARE
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