466
FXUS61 KCTP 280731
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
331 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK
2) COOL PATTERN SHIFT LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS
ENDING 12Z WEDNESDAY ARE LESS THAN 0.25" FOCUSED OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY VS. LATE APRIL
CLIMO (5-10F BELOW NORMAL) AND YESTERDAY'S MAXT (5-15F LOWER)
WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MORE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS CPA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MORE ROBUST
FRONTAL WAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TRANSITIONS TO A COASTAL LOW. 24HR QPF AMOUNTS ENDING 12Z
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 0.50-1.25" WITH MAX TOTALS FOCUSED OVER THE
NW ALLEGHENIES ADDING TO 30-90 DAY PRECIP SURPLUSES.
SPC DID EXPAND THE D2 MRGL RISK SWO A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH
ALONG US-22 COVERING MORE THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MTNS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK IS 0.75-1.50" AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OF THE NON-FLOODING AND OVERWHELMINGLY BENEFICIAL
VARIETY PARTICULARLY OVER D1-D2 DROUGHT AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA.
--------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOL PATTERN SHIFT LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY
MEAN TROUGHING/COOL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK WITH CLOSED 500MB LOW ROTATING
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS
RESULTS IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THU-SUN. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH WILL ADD TO THE RELATIVE CHILL FACTOR.
PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY AND EPISODIC TIED TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. FROST RISK IS NON ZERO GIVEN THE
COLDER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND,
BUT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO SEE AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE OR NOTHING
SCENARIO GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SUSTAINED NW WIND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS TODAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS OF PA, UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
IN THE MEANTIME, CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA AIRFIELDS WILL FEEL THE
IMPACT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LEADING TO LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THE LONGEST PERIODS OF LLWS WILL BE AT KBFD, KJST, KAOO
AND KUNV - THROUGH 18-20Z TODAY. PEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE
2000 FT AGL LEVEL WILL BE BETWEEN 45-50 KT AT KBFD DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING, AND IN THE LOW 40 KT RANGE FROM KJST TO
KAOO AND KUNV WITH VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 KTS OVER THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
CIGS DROP TO IFR BY 20-21Z OVER THE AIRFIELDS OF KJST AND KBFD
AND AROUND DUSK (01Z WED) AT KUNV. THE AIRFIELDS OF KAOO, KIPT,
KMDT AND KLNS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO MVFR - CIG-WISE.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS TODAY WILL VARY FROM 60-75 PERCENT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS TO 40-55 PERCENT OVER THE
LOWER AND MID SUSQ VALLEY RESPECTIVELY.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR/IFR FAVORED DUE TO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS & RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
THU...VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST, BECOMING
VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page