666
FXUS61 KCTP 290843
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
443 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED +FG AOA 2000FT ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES
* ADDED AREAS OF FROST THURSDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD DRENCHING RAINFALL AND A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST PA
2) CHILLY PATTERN FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH FROST/FREEZE RISK
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WET WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD DRENCHING RAINFALL
AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST PA
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND RIDGE-SHROUDING/LOCALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS CPA THIS MORNING. WE ADDED +FG AT ELEVATIONS AOA 2000FT
BASED ON BLEND OF ASOS/RWIS DATA WITH VISIBILITY 0.5-1KFT.
DRENCHING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NW
ALLEGHENIES WITH >1" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BASED ON HREF/REFS PMM
QPF SIGNAL. WHILE LARGELY BENEFICIAL ESPECIALLY IN D1-D2 DROUGHT
AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA, SOME ROADWAY
PONDING OR MINOR LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE RUNOFF ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LEVEL 1/5 MRGL RISK SWO OVER SOUTHWEST PA,
BUT THE LACK OF INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO CAST CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS. SECONDARY LOW
FORMATION ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MD LINE SUGGESTS GREATEST SEVERE
STORM RISK IS PROBABLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH INTO THE WARM
SECTOR OVER WV/VA.
--------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHILLY PATTERN FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH
FROST/FREEZE RISK THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE BROADLY DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS THURSDAY-SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW ACTIVE ACROSS ALL CPA ZONES.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND CROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.
GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY A
BROAD AREA OF RAIN NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW'S TRACK.
LOOK FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KBFD THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING
HOURS AT KBFD LIKELY IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO PLAIN IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY. IN THE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE RAINFALL TONIGHT, CIGS WILL
LIKELY DROP SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET - BACK INTO THE LIFR RANGE
WHILE VSBYS FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.
KJST HAS SEEN THE BEST CIGS AND OVERALL CONDITIONS (VFR) SO FAR
AS THEY'RE RESIDING IN A NARROW WARM SECTOR WITH A LIGHT SSW
BREEZE.
ELSEWHERE, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND
WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, BUT MAINLY VFR VSBYS.
REMOVED LOW VSBYS AS THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEG F TEMP/DEWPOINTS SPREAD WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING, PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE
STEADIER RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE SW LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BRUNT OF THE STEADIER RAIN WILL FALL IN A 6
TO 8 HOUR WINDOW AT MOST AIRFIELDS.
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW HEADS TO THE NJ/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT, THE LEFTOVER LLVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
NW/UPSLOPE BREEZE WILL CAUSE LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS INTO THE
LIFR RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF PA AND MVFR TO IFR
ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR/IFR FAVORED DUE TO LOW CLOUD CEILINGS & RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. A FEW -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY WEREN'T INCLUDED IN ANY
TAFS AS A RESULT OF THE FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY AND GENERALLY
WEAK INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THEIR DEVELOPMENT.
THU...VFR/MVFR IN THE MORNING AS RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST,
BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST IN -RA AND POSSIBLY SOME
-SN.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
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