572
FXUS61 KCTP 300114
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
914 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
* EXPANDED DISCUSSION ABOUT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
2) CHILLY PATTERN FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH FROST/FREEZE RISK
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
AT 9 PM, THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
PA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER AT TIMES WAS OVER EASTERN PA. BOTH BANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE RAIN IS HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG.
ALSO AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST HAVE BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN
NORTHWESTERN PA THIS SPRING. THUS NOT SEEING ANY ISSUES WITH THE
RAIN.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: CHILLY PATTERN FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH FROST/FREEZE
RISK THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL HELP TO REINFORCE BROADLY
DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO LEAD TO FROST AND
FREEZE CONCERNS THURSDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE
GROWING SEASON IS NOW ACTIVE ACROSS ALL CPA ZONES. PATCHY FROST MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR-NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FOR THURSDAY & FRIDAY NIGHTS, FROST/FREEZE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF I-80/I-99, WITH LIMITING FACTORS BEING
850 MB TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON THOSE DAYS + CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HELPING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO
LIGHTEN, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE NORTH AND WEST
OF I-78/I-81.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AIRSPACE
BRINGING WITH IT REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWERING CEILINGS.
MOST SITES WILL REMAIN IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
(>90%) WITH CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
100FT AGL AREA WIDE. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. DRIER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT IN AT THE SURFACE AND
CLOUD DECKS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 12Z. POOR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD ON LONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE BFD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS COULD GET GUSTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. WINDS COULD GUST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON UP TO 25KTS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU... DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN, MAINLY MVFR & VFR WITH BFD
POSSIBLY HAVING SOME IFR LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR WILL BE
FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MANY AREAS SEEING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST IN -RA AND POSSIBLY SOME
-SN.
MON... MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO OUR WEST,
PRECIP MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
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