975
FXUS61 KCTP 300649
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED.
* EXPANDED DISCUSSION ABOUT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
2) CHILLY PATTERN FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH FROST/FREEZE RISK
THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
AT 9 PM, THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
PA, WITH A FEW SHOWERS. MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER AT TIMES WAS OVER EASTERN PA. BOTH BANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE RAIN IS HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING ALONG.
ALSO AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST HAVE BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN
NORTHWESTERN PA THIS SPRING. THUS NOT SEEING ANY ISSUES WITH THE
RAIN.
--------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHILLY PATTERN FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH FROST/FREEZE
RISK THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL HELP TO REINFORCE BROADLY
DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO LEAD TO FROST AND
FREEZE CONCERNS THURSDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT THE
GROWING SEASON IS NOW ACTIVE ACROSS ALL CPA ZONES. PATCHY FROST MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR-NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, BUT HIGHER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FOR THURSDAY & FRIDAY NIGHTS, FROST/FREEZE CHANCES ARE
PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF I-80/I-99, WITH LIMITING FACTORS BEING
850 MB TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ON THOSE DAYS + CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HELPING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO
LIGHTEN, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE NORTH AND WEST
OF I-78/I-81.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND
VSBYS EARLY TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL COOL POOL APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. KIPT AND KMDT
WILL BE THE TARGETS FOR A FEW SHOWERS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND KBFD WILL BE BROADER
PERIOD FROM THE MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
AS THE TRANSITION TO THE DEEPENING, COOL NW FLOW OCCURS TODAY,
WE'LL SEE THE TYPICAL LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR TO LOW END MVFR) AT
KBFD AND KJST WHILE MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL BE
FOUND AT KAOO, KUNV AND KIPT. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMDT
AND KLNS RESPECTIVELY AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR
THIS MORNING AND REACH VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-17Z TODAY AS
DOWNSLOPING NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF DRIER AIR LIFTS THE CLOUD
BASES.
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATELY GUSTY (HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S (KTS))
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST TOWN THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST IN -RA AND POSSIBLY SOME
-SN.
MON... MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO OUR WEST,
PRECIP MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BOWEN
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