498
FXUS61 KCTP 301803
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
203 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FROST ADVISORY EXPANDED AND FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END APRIL AND START MAY WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND FROST/FREEZE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END APRIL AND
START MAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND FROST/FREEZE RISK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE BROADLY DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND
UNSETTLED AT TIMES AS MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWER CHANCES, THE FRONTS WILL BRING REINFORCING
SURGES OF COOL AIR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO LEAD TO FROST AND
FREEZE CONCERNS THURSDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT
THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW ACTIVE ACROSS ALL CPA ZONES.
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT IS A SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE
HEADLINE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH A
(LESS THAN IDEAL) THE BROAD CYCLONIC MEAN FLOW. WE TOOK A
MEASURED APPROACH AND WILL ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY
EASTWARD AS NEEDED. A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/BREEZE TO LIMIT EXTENT OF
FROST. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
BOUTS OF SHOWERS APPEAR MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY
AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY. NBM AND AI MODELS ARE SIGNALING SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS
THE TRANSITION TO THE DEEPENING, COOL NW FLOW OCCURS TODAY,
WE'LL SEE THE TYPICAL LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR TO LOW END MVFR) AT
KBFD AND KJST WHILE MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATELY GUSTY (HIGH TEENS TO LOW
20S (KTS)) THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWN THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS CALMING DOWN. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS TO BFD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT BFD AND POSSIBLE (30%) AT
IPT, UNV, JST, AND AOO.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST IN -RA AND POSSIBLY SOME
-SN.
MON... MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO OUR WEST,
PRECIP MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.
CLIMATE
*DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.18 INCHES AT KJST YESTERDAY 4/29
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.13 INCHES SET BACK IN 1964
*DESPITE A COOL END TO THE MONTH, APRIL 2026 WILL END AS ONE OF
THE WARMEST ON RECORD
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ004-011-012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ005-006-010.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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