925
FXUS61 KCTP 301822
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
222 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FROST ADVISORY EXPANDED AND FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END APRIL AND START MAY WITH
SHOWER CHANCES AND FROST/FREEZE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END APRIL AND
START MAY WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND FROST/FREEZE RISK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL HELP TO
REINFORCE BROADLY DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND
UNSETTLED AT TIMES AS MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWER CHANCES, THE FRONTS WILL BRING REINFORCING
SURGES OF COOL AIR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO LEAD TO FROST AND
FREEZE CONCERNS THURSDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NOW THAT
THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW ACTIVE ACROSS ALL CPA ZONES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS BELOW 700 MB BEHIND A DISTURBANCE BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL PA. WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST, CONFIDENCE IN FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS HAS
INCREASED. AS A RESULT, THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A
TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST, AND WAS UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR ELK, MCKEAN, AND POTTER COUNTIES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
BUT WE AGAIN EXPECT TO SEE ENOUGH CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR FROST
AND FREEZE CONCERNS TO DEVELOP. THE COLDEST NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A FREEZE ALMOST CERTAIN, BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF FROST AS
THERE WILL BE A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS
THE TRANSITION TO THE DEEPENING, COOL NW FLOW OCCURS TODAY,
WE'LL SEE THE TYPICAL LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR TO LOW END MVFR) AT
KBFD AND KJST WHILE MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATELY GUSTY (HIGH TEENS TO LOW
20S (KTS)) THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWN THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH WINDS CALMING DOWN. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AND COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS TO BFD.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT BFD AND POSSIBLE (30%) AT
IPT, UNV, JST, AND AOO.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST IN -RA AND POSSIBLY SOME
-SN.
MON... MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WAVE TO OUR WEST,
PRECIP MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.
CLIMATE
*DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.18 INCHES AT KJST YESTERDAY 4/29
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1.13 INCHES SET BACK IN 1964
*DESPITE A COOL END TO THE MONTH, APRIL 2026 WILL END AS ONE OF
THE WARMEST ON RECORD
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ004-011-012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ005-006-010.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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