256
FXUS61 KCTP 150030
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
830 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* GOING FORECAST VERY MUCH ON TRACK
* KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON NBM GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS (MAY BE TOO
WARM) FOR NEXT WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY --SHRA CONTINUE OVER THE W EARLY TONIGHT AND OVER THE
N/NE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
2) SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURE SURGE RAMPS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY --SHRA CONTINUE OVER THE W EARLY TONIGHT
AND OVER THE N/NE LONGER INTO THE NIGHT
18Z RADAR LOOKS PRETTY WET WITH A STRIPE OF -RA SLIDING THROUGH
UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. DRYING IS SEEN UPSTREAM,
BUT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA LONG
INTO THE NIGHT OVER THE NERN TOWNS. THE CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL-SERN TOWNS SHOULD DEVELOP BIGGER BREAKS IN THEM,
BUT THE W AND ESP THE NE WILL STAY PRETTY CLOUDY THROUGH MID-
MORNING FRI. MINS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE WIND
AND CLOUDS KEEPING US FROM GETTING TOO COLD (40S, MAINLY).
------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURE SURGE RAMPS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR
AFTER A COOL START TO MAY, A SIGNIFICANT SUMMERLIKE WARMUP IS ON
THE HORIZON FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD DELIVER A RATHER SUDDEN WARM
SURGE WITH MAX TEMPS PROJECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AND
EVEN LOWER 90S. DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE CHALLENGED BASED ON
THE CURRENT FCST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO A KNOWN SYSTEMATIC BIAS CORRECTION
ISSUE IDENTIFIED IN THE NBM DURING THE SHOULDER SEASONS.
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL HEAT RISK CONSIDERATIONS LOOMING
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS STEMS
NOT ONLY WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY, BUT ALSO FROM AN ACCLIMATION PERSPECTIVE. THE SUMMER
LIKE HEAT ISN'T EXPECTED TO LAST LONG WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND
PRECIP.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR BFD AND JST
WITH LIFR EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IN BFD. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST IN LIFR UP TO AROUND 08Z FOR BFD. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AFTER DAYBREAK THOUGH BECOMING VFR LIKELY BY NOON. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP CLOUD DECK CUTOFF WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
MVFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FOR AOO AND UNV WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
CONFIDENCE IN IPT, BUT STILL MVFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN WILL HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING, WITH
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR WILL BE PRESENT BY NOON.
UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT REGARDING EXACTLY HOW MDT WILL EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS; SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE BROKEN CLOUD
DECK CLOSE TO AND AT MVFR CONDITIONS (3000FT). MAY STAY AT VFR
THOUGH.
OVERALL, VFR WILL RULE FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY WITH A SLOWING
WIND SPEED AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX (FROM W-E THRU THE
DAY). CALM AIR AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS IN STORE FOR FRI NIGHT
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD (CENTERED MORE TO OUR
S).
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR IS LIKELY MUCH OF THE TIME, ALTHOUGH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BFD AND LESS LIKELY AT
JST/UNV/AOO/IPT DUE TO ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA.
SUN...SCT SHRA/TSRA NW, VFR ELSEWHERE.
MON...LOW CIGS/ISOLD --SHRA POSS, MAINLY S.
TUE...SCT SHRA W. OTHERWISE, NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 18-19:
5/18 5/19
HARRISBURG 94 IN 1962 95 IN 1962
WILLIAMSPORT 95 IN 1962 96 IN 1996
ALTOONA 91 IN 1962/1996/2017 92 IN 1996
BRADFORD 85 IN 1962 85 IN 1962
STATE COLLEGE 92 IN 1962 92 IN 1934/1996
PLEASE NOTE: STATE COLLEGE CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVATIONS ARE A
24-HOUR SUMMARY TAKEN ONCE PER DAY AROUND 7 AM (7AM-7AM).
THEREFORE, A MAX TEMP OCCURRING IN THE DAYLIGHT OR LATE IN THE
DAY IS USUALLY REPORTED IN THE _NEXT_ DAY'S OBSERVATION. ALSO,
THE SAME MIN TEMP MAY BE REPORTED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS IF THE
MIN OCCURS AT OBSERVATION TIME.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/BOWEN
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/BOWEN
AVIATION...DANGELO/LAMBRECH
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
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