840
FNUS71 KCTP 181451
FWSCTP
SPOT FORECAST FOR OLD MOUNTAIN RX BURN BLACKWELL TRAIL...DCNR BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2000 EDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR
CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN STATE COLLEGE.
DISCUSSION
HEAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND TUESDAY, BUT ONLY MODERATE
INCREASES IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING UP TO 6 OR
7 THOUSAND FEET BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES MAINLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S (%).
FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PUT A LID ON MOST OF THE CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS)
TODAY AND TUESDAY, BUT A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW 0.10"
(AND MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY STAY DRY).
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...12 PERCENT.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 TO 5.
TIME (EDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%)........... 25 19 15 11 23 15 35 43 39 41
WEATHER COV.......
WEATHER TYPE......
TSTM COV..........
CHC OF THDR (%)... 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 10
TEMP.............. 78 75 73 71 69 67 66 65 64 64
RH................ 56 62 66 68 73 78 78 84 84 84
20 FT WIND DIR.... S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD.... 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST... 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)..... 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR... S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD... 10 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 8
LVORI............. 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
ADI............... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 18
TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...17 PERCENT.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................18 EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 114 IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%)........... 31 51 33 40 34 45 40 29 44 20 17 17
WEATHER COV....... ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE...... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV.......... ISO
CHC OF THDR (%)... 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20
TEMP.............. 64 66 69 73 76 79 81 82 84 84 85 85
RH................ 84 81 76 68 62 56 53 49 46 46 43 45
20 FT WIND DIR.... SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD.... 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST... 7 8 10 11 14 17 18 18 18 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)..... 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0
TRANSP WIND DIR... SW W SW W W W W W SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD... 9 9 10 16 20 22 21 20 18 20 21 22
LVORI............. 4 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI............... 18 18 18 114 114 114 108 108 108 90 90 90
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 22 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...17 PERCENT.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................12 TO 13.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%)........... 17 17 21 42 38 33 40 48 55 57 60 62
WEATHER COV....... ISO ISO SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE...... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV.......... ISO ISO
CHC OF THDR (%)... 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP.............. 83 80 78 76 74 72 70 69 67 66 66 65
RH................ 46 52 58 62 64 66 68 70 75 78 78 81
20 FT WIND DIR.... SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD.... 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST... 18 17 14 14 14 14 14 16 16 16 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)..... 3.6 2.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR... SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD... 18 16 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12
LVORI............. 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
ADI............... 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...18 PERCENT.
LVORI...............2 IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADI.................44 TO 55 IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%)........... 68 74 80 80 80 80 80 80 71 66 60 55
WEATHER COV....... SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV.......... SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF THDR (%)... 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10 10 0
TEMP.............. 66 66 68 70 71 73 73 72 71 71 71 70
RH................ 78 81 76 71 68 64 64 64 63 59 53 51
20 FT WIND DIR.... W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD.... 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST... 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)..... 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR... W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD... 13 15 16 17 17 18 17 17 16 16 16 16
LVORI............. 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 M M M M
ADI............... 44 44 44 55 55 55 51 51 51 M M M
FORECASTER...BANGHOFF
REQUESTED BY...GREG KOERNIG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613925.0/CTP
.DELDT 05/18/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL TBREININGE@PA.GOV,EFRITZINGE@PA.GOV,GKOERNIG@PA.GOV,CNORTHCRAF@PA.GOV,JHAMILTON@PA.GOV,ERBUTTERS@PA.GOV
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