481
FXUS61 KCTP 031834
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TRIMMED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/RH WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
* TRENDING DRIER INTO NEXT WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY SPELL THROUGH LATE WEEK PRECEDES BRIEF RETURN OF MIDSUMMER
WARMTH AND INCREASING RAIN RISK FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
2) STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TRENDING DRIER
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY SPELL THROUGH LATE WEEK PRECEDES BRIEF RETURN
OF MIDSUMMER WARMTH AND INCREASING RAIN RISK FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE
THE ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RISING TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LATE WEEK WITH MIDSUMMER WARMTH RETURNING TO CPA INTO
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE. MAX TEMPS CLIMB +5-10F ABOVE CLIMO
INTO THE 75-85F RANGE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 80-90F
READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WAVY AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (MAX POPS ON
SUNDAY).
KEY MESSAGE 2: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
TRENDING DRIER
MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER ON THE MARGIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIP PATTERN. IF
THE DRY TREND CONTINUES, IT WOULD BE DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGING SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHETHER IT IS
RAINY OR DRY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (EITHER FROM CLOUDS/RAIN OR A POST-COLD
FRONTAL AIRMASS).
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES CLOSE TO CENTRAL PA TODAY
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER, WINDS MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH, AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTIVE CU ARE NOT IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND SUPPRESSION FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST EARLY THURSDAY AND A
FILTERED DECK OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF PA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE RIDGES IN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST PA.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. ANY
NIGHTTIME FOG WILL BE LIMITED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SAT...VFR CONDS FAVORED, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LATE-DAY -SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA.
MON...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH, IMPROVING IN
THE NORTH.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/LAMBRECH
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