876
FXUS61 KCTP 040717
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
317 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TRENDING DRIER INTO NEXT WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY SPELL THROUGH LATE WEEK PRECEDES BRIEF RETURN OF MIDSUMMER
WARMTH AND INCREASING RAIN RISK FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
2) STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TRENDING DRIER
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY SPELL THROUGH LATE WEEK PRECEDES BRIEF RETURN
OF MIDSUMMER WARMTH AND INCREASING RAIN RISK FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE
THE ONGOING STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RISING TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ON
TRACK FOR LATE WEEK WITH MIDSUMMER WARMTH RETURNING TO CPA INTO
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE. MAX TEMPS CLIMB +5-10F ABOVE CLIMO
INTO THE 75-85F RANGE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 80-90F
READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (MAX POPS ON
SUNDAY).
KEY MESSAGE 2: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
STILL TRENDING DRIER
MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER ON THE MARGIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIP PATTERN. IF
THE DRY TREND CONTINUES, IT WOULD BE DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGING SOUTH FROM CANADA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHETHER IT IS
RAINY OR DRY, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES COOL OFF
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (EITHER FROM CLOUDS/RAIN OR A POST-COLD
FRONTAL AIRMASS).
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PA AND WVA
EARLY TODAY WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (SKC-FEW 250) EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MIXED WITH/FILTERED BY JUST A FEW
FLAT/PANCAKE CU AND SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS (SCT- BKN250) BY
MIDDAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE 5-8 KT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. ANY
NIGHTTIME FOG WILL BE LIMITED.
SAT...VFR CONDS FAVORED, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LATE-DAY -SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA.
MON...VFR FAVORED WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM POST-FRONTAL
STRATOCU OR LINGERING -SHRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TEARE
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