735
FXUS61 KCTP 041752
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
152 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ADDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
* BEST ODDS FOR RAIN: SHIFTED TO SATURDAY PM/REDUCED FOR SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
2) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER
HEAT FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
THE 7-9 DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RISING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MODERATE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS
STILL ON TRACK TO DELIVER A SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE. MAX TEMPS CLIMB +5-10F ABOVE CLIMO INTO
THE 75-85F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 80-90F
READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SIGNAL DRY PRECIP
PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A LEVEL 2/5
SEVERE T-STORM RISK FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PA WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGER INSTABILITY, VERTICAL SHEAR, AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE STORMS CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CPA. MODEL DATA HAS REDUCED
ODDS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE/MAX POPS NOW
FOCUSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST PA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS HIGH WILL BRING SCT HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON (YET STILL MAINLY FEW-SCT) WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR CONDS FAVORED, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LATE-DAY -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA.
MON-TUE...PREVAILING VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE
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