322
FXUS61 KCTP 042247
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
647 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED MORE DETAILS ABOUT SATURDAY'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK
* BEST ODDS FOR RAIN SHIFTED TO SATURDAY PM/REDUCED FOR SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
2) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
3) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER
HEAT FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
THE 7-9 DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RISING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MODERATE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS
STILL ON TRACK TO DELIVER A SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE. MAX TEMPS CLIMB +5-10F ABOVE CLIMO INTO
THE 75-85F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 80-90F
READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AND 60S ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY
BACK TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A LEVEL 2/5
SEVERE T-STORM RISK FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PA WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGER INSTABILITY, VERTICAL SHEAR, AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL DATA HAS REDUCED ODDS FOR RAIN
ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE/MAX POPS NOW FOCUSED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST PA. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHWEST, WHILE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PA MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL DRY PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A PREVAILING RIDGE WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP. SUCH
A SOLUTION WOULD BRING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND LEADING TO DAILY AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES NOT FORM, VERY WARM CONDITIONS WOULD BE A
SLAM DUNK. IF IT DOES FORM, AFTERNOON HEAT COULD BE BROKEN BY
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOME. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A HOT END OF
THE WEEK WITH EITHER HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OR WARM AND STORMY
WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PA
INTO FRIDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AND FAIR WEATHER CU
FRIDAY AFT, LOOKING AT ANOTHER DRY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW
CHANCE OF ANY FOG LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATER SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE
STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREAS
LIKE BFD.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF PA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR CONDS FAVORED, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LATE-DAY -SHRA/-TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA.
MON-TUE...PREVAILING VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...MARTIN
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