287
FXUS61 KCTP 050525
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TO MATCH
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
2) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
3) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER
HEAT FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE
VERY MINOR CHANGES IN THIS EVENING UPDATE. HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE TOO FAST TO RESOLVE WITH HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS.
SO A GENERAL 20-40 PCT VALUE IS GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS...
THE 7-9 DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
RISING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A MODERATE UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS
STILL ON TRACK TO DELIVER A SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE. MAX TEMPS CLIMB +5-10F ABOVE CLIMO INTO
THE 75-85F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 80-90F
READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON
FRIDAY AND 60S ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY
BACK TO THE REGION.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A LEVEL 2/5
SEVERE T-STORM RISK FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PA WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGER INSTABILITY, VERTICAL SHEAR, AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODEL DATA HAS REDUCED ODDS FOR RAIN
ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE/MAX POPS NOW FOCUSED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST PA. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHWEST, WHILE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PA MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO
RAIN. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL DRY PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL
SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A PREVAILING RIDGE WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP. SUCH
A SOLUTION WOULD BRING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND LEADING TO DAILY AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES NOT FORM, VERY WARM CONDITIONS WOULD BE A
SLAM DUNK. IF IT DOES FORM, AFTERNOON HEAT COULD BE BROKEN BY
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOME. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A HOT END OF
THE WEEK WITH EITHER HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OR WARM AND STORMY
WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL FLYING
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY WITH VERY HIGH (> 90%) CONFIDENCE. RECENT NBM/HREF
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD; HOWEVER, GENERALLY EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 25KFT AGL WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR LIKELY
ALLOWING FOR LITTLE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS INCREASE IN THE
15Z-23Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS/GUSTS TOPPING OUT
AT JST/BFD (LIKELY JUST ABOVE 15 KTS) BEFORE DECREASING INTO THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR CONDS FAVORED EARLY, BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
LATE-DAY -SHRA/-TSRA.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA.
MON-TUE...PREVAILING VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BEATY
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