867
FXUS61 KCTP 052348
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL PA; INCREASED WIND THREAT.
* INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
2) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER
HEAT FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
THE 8-10 DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. MAX TEMPS
CLIMB +5-15F ABOVE CLIMO INTO THE 80-90F RANGE TODAY AND
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S TODAY AND 60S ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY BACK TO THE
REGION. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC CONTINUES TO EXPAND THE LEVEL 2/5
(SLGT) SEVERE T-STORM RISK, WHICH NOW INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL
PA. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE NUMBER AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS AND
LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING INTO THE NW ZONES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS SBCAPE CLIMBS TO NEAR
1500 J/KG AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES BROAD
SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS, BUT A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC INCREASED THE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL.
MODEL DATA HAS REDUCED ODDS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH STORMS
PRODUCING LESS RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND THE WET GROUND ALLOWS FOR SFC RH NEAR 100 PCT
IN SPOTS. KEY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL DRY PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A PREVAILING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S AND 90S),
BUT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP. SUCH A SOLUTION
WOULD BRING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
LEADING TO DAILY AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT FORM, VERY WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF AT BFD OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND EVEN SOME STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT. FOR NOW WENT WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND VFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO 00Z SUNDAY. BFD HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A MVFR CIG
LATER SATURDAY AFT.
FOR NOW, LEFT THUNDER OUT. SITES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LIKE
BFD MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER FROM A FEW SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING TO SEE MUCH CHANCE OF THUNDER. FAR SOUTHEAST
SITES LIKE MDT AND LNS MAY NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER
PRIOR TO 00Z SUNDAY. MAIN THING GOING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS COOLING ALOFT AND RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS. LACK
OF SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE A FACTOR AGAINST HAVING A LOT OF
STORM FORMATION.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH,
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ALOFT ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES. MAIN PROBLEM COULD BE FOG AT NIGHT, BUT THEN
NIGHTS ARE SHORT THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND IT HAS BEEN ON THE DRY
SIDE FOR ALMOST 2 WEEKS NOW.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN LATE
TUE.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...MARTIN
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