488
FXUS61 KCTP 060207
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1007 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY COVERS ALL
OF CENTRAL PA; ENHANCED WIND THREAT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, TARGETING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS, CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
* INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
2) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER
HEAT FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
THE 8-10 DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WITH A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT FEATURING LOW
TEMPS IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE +5-15F
ABOVE CLIMO INTO THE 80-90F RANGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE NW MTNS WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEG F LOWER THAN
FRIDAY'S.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC EXPANDED THE LEVEL 2/5 (SLGT)
SEVERE T-STORM RISK, WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE NUMBER AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS AND
LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING INTO THE NW ZONES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SPARKED BY A BOOST OF LARGER SCALE
ASCENT LINKED TO THE THERMALLY DIRECT, RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A ROBUST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRECEDING IT. SBCAPE CLIMBS TO NEAR 1500
J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARDS, BUT A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY IN
WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE TURNING IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL.
MODEL DATA HAS REDUCED ODDS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH STORMS
PRODUCING LESS RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND THE WET GROUND ALLOWS FOR SFC RH NEAR 100 PCT
IN SPOTS. KEY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL DRY PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A PREVAILING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S AND 90S),
BUT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP. SUCH A SOLUTION
WOULD BRING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
LEADING TO DAILY AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT FORM, VERY WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF AT BFD OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND EVEN SOME STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT. FOR NOW WENT WITH MAINLY SHOWERS AND VFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO 00Z SUNDAY. BFD HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF A MVFR CIG
LATER SATURDAY AFT.
FOR NOW, LEFT THUNDER OUT. SITES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LIKE
BFD MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER FROM A FEW SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING TO SEE MUCH CHANCE OF THUNDER. FAR SOUTHEAST
SITES LIKE MDT AND LNS MAY NOT GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER
PRIOR TO 00Z SUNDAY. MAIN THING GOING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS COOLING ALOFT AND RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS. LACK
OF SFC CONVERGENCE MAY BE A FACTOR AGAINST HAVING A LOT OF
STORM FORMATION.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH,
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ALOFT ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES. MAIN PROBLEM COULD BE FOG AT NIGHT, BUT THEN
NIGHTS ARE SHORT THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND IT HAS BEEN ON THE DRY
SIDE FOR ALMOST 2 WEEKS NOW.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN LATE
TUE.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...MARTIN
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