143
FXUS61 KCTP 060612
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY COVERS ALL
OF CENTRAL PA; ENHANCED WIND THREAT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, TARGETING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS, CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.
* INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER HEAT FOR THE
FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
2) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ONGOING DRY SPELL PRECEDES SURGE OF MIDSUMMER
HEAT FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE.
THE 8-10 DAY STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WITH A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT FEATURING LOW
TEMPS IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE +5-15F
ABOVE CLIMO INTO THE 80-90F RANGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE NW MTNS WHERE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEG F LOWER THAN
FRIDAY'S.
DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SPC EXPANDED THE LEVEL 2/5 (SLGT)
SEVERE T-STORM RISK, WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL PA.
LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE NUMBER AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS AND
LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING INTO THE NW ZONES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SPARKED BY A BOOST OF LARGER SCALE
ASCENT LINKED TO THE THERMALLY DIRECT, RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A ROBUST MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRECEDING IT. SBCAPE CLIMBS TO NEAR 1500
J/KG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARDS, BUT A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY IN
WESTERN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE TURNING IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM SPC INCREASED
THE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS WELL.
MODEL DATA HAS REDUCED ODDS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH STORMS
PRODUCING LESS RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND THE WET GROUND ALLOWS FOR SFC RH NEAR 100 PCT
IN SPOTS. KEY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL DRY PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A PREVAILING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S AND 90S),
BUT AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW COULD DEVELOP. SUCH A SOLUTION
WOULD BRING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
LEADING TO DAILY AFTERNOON PULSE THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT FORM, VERY WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WOULD
BE MORE LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME THIN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT
AIRFIELDS JUST WEST OF THE REGION (ERI/IDI) THAT WILL FILTER
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS (BFD/UNV). RECENT NBM/HREF BLEND
BRINGS IN SOME SHOWER CHANCES TO BFD ~12Z SATURDAY WITH A LOW-
END TSRA THREAT THROUGH ~15Z, THUS HAVE INTRODUCED THIS NARROW
WINDOW ALONG WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH (~60-70%)
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT HREF/GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE. IN THIS
EARLIER TIMEFRAME, MARGINAL LLWS THRESHOLDS COULD BE MET AT
BFD/JST WITH A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LLJ; HOWEVER, BULK OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SHEAR JUST LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTIONS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION PURPOSES ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA REMAINS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAIN
CONCERNS) AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TSRA IN VERY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO BFD IN THE ~19Z-21Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. GIVEN
AMPLE DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR, EXPECT TSRA TO LARGELY GROW
UPSCALE AND IMPACT ALL OF THE WESTERN TERMINALS AS THIS COMPLEX
SHIFTS MAINLY SOUTHWARD (WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT)
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE DOES HIGHLIGHT
BFD/JST/AOO/UNV AS MOST PROBABLE FOR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELD, WITH
HREF PROBABILITIES REACHING BETWEEN 30%-50% OF LIGHTNING
OCCURRING AT THESE AIRFIELDS WHILE FURTHER SOUTH/EAST THERE
REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES DUE TO MORE BROKEN STORM
COVERAGE. DESPITE HIGHER PROBABILITIES, THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE
OUTLINES PROB30S MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, WHICH
WILL HOPEFULLY BE TIGHTENED UP IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. IN TSRA
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD
AND GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO INCLUDING HIGH WINDS/GUSTS IN TSRA
MENTIONS; HOWEVER, WOULD LIKE TO SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN WHERE TSRA FIRE THIS EVENING BEFORE INCLUDING THOSE MENTIONS.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY, MENTIONS FOR SHRA/TSRA DECREASE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR FOG
FORMATION AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 00-12Z SUNDAY.
CURRENT HREF OUTLINES HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT BFD/JST; HOWEVER, REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO
EXTENDS THESE MENTIONS TO AOO/UNV/IPT CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN LATE
TUE.
WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BEATY
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