402
FXUS61 KCTP 062027
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
427 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING. ENHANCED SVR RISK ISSSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER IS AND WILL IMAPCTING ALL OF CENTRAL PA
2) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE WEATHER IS AND WILL IMAPCTING ALL OF
CENTRAL PA
NOT TIME TO WRITE. LOTS OF DAMAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTION OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH SPORADIC/DISORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE. DUE TO THE LIKLIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE, THE SPC HAS INCREASED OUR RISK TO ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT
4 HRS. WATCH 278 RUNS THROUGH 8 PM AND TIMING THERE IS GREAT.
MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR OFF SOME OF THE NORTH FROM THE WATCH SOON,
BUT STILL A SMALL THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THERE AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREVAILING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S AND 90S), BUT MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW
THEY HANDLE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
US UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NBM HAS 20-40 PCT POPS
COVERING AT LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL PA EACH DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK, BUT REALISTICALLY MUCH OF
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY END UP DRY IF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR WEST.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
(KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KLNS) AS AN MCS TRACKS EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. MCS MAINTENANCE IS SUPPORTED BY ADEQUATE MLCAPE (AROUND
1000 J/KG) / LINE-NORMAL BULK SHEAR (20-30 KTS). ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, CONDITIONS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS (50+ KTS) EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS LINE.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH CONVECTION
RELATED TO THIS FRONT PRIMARILY HANDLED BY PROB30S FOR THE 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING/IMPACTS.
NEVERTHELESS, GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL,
INCLUDING LOCALLY SEVERE-LEVEL WIND GUSTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS, CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
MAY SUPPORT MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS WHERE RAIN HAD FALLEN. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS KBFD/KJST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW &
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 12-15Z
SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT, FOLLOWED BY A SCT VFR
CUMULUS DECK + POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN LATE
TUE.
WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...TEARE
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