287
FXUS61 KCTP 070244
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED, BUT A FEW STRONG AND TRAINING STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW ZONES OF OUR CWA (MAINLY
SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES) THROUGH 07Z.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW LINGERING STORMS WILL TRAIN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
2) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW LINGERING STORMS WILL TRAIN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EARLIER AREA OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA AND THE EXIT OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST WILL ALLOW NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SLIGHT BACKING OF THE MEAN 925-850 MB FLOW AND A
WNW-ESE THEAT-E RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SOME TRAINING SHOWERS AND
SUB-SEVERE TSRA.
THIS THETA-E RIDGE AND LARGER SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET, WILL SINK SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND STILL A LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LEAD TO RATHER MILD TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. LATE NIGHT
TIMING OF A CFROPA THROUGH NORTHERN PA WILL RESULT IN MID TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S THERE.
MOIST GROUND AND THE LIGHT WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
--------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREVAILING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S AND 90S), BUT MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW
THEY HANDLE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
US UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NBM HAS 20-40 PCT POPS
COVERING AT LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL PA EACH DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK, BUT REALISTICALLY MUCH OF
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY END UP DRY IF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR WEST.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONVECTION LINGERING SOUTH OF JST/AOO LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD
STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF VC IN TAFS. A COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT MAY BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS AREAWIDE, BUT PROB AT ANY TERMINAL TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS, CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS
MAY SUPPORT MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS
WHERE RAIN HAD FALLEN. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS KBFD/KJST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW & LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 12-15Z SUNDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT, FOLLOWED BY A SCT VFR CUMULUS
DECK + POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN LATE
TUE.
WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...TEARE/RXR
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