007
FXUS61 KCTP 070553
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED, BUT A FEW STRONG AND TRAINING STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW ZONES OF OUR CWA (MAINLY
SOMERSET AND BEDFORD COUNTIES) THROUGH 07Z.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW LINGERING STORMS WILL TRAIN ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
2) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FEW LINGERING STORMS WILL TRAIN ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EARLIER AREA OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA AND THE EXIT OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST WILL ALLOW NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS WHERE SLIGHT BACKING OF THE MEAN 925-850 MB FLOW AND A
WNW-ESE THEAT-E RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SOME TRAINING SHOWERS AND
SUB-SEVERE TSRA.
THIS THETA-E RIDGE AND LARGER SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET, WILL SINK SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND STILL A LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVERNIGHT THAT WILL LEAD TO RATHER MILD TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. LATE NIGHT
TIMING OF A CFROPA THROUGH NORTHERN PA WILL RESULT IN MID TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S THERE.
MOIST GROUND AND THE LIGHT WIND WILL CREATE AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH A CLASSIC
SUMMERLIKE PATTERN EXPECTED - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FOLLOWING A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY, EMERGING MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SIGNAL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE COOL DOWN ON MONDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS
DIVERGE ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A
PREVAILING RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL ENSURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80S AND 90S), BUT MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW
THEY HANDLE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
US UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST NBM HAS 20-40 PCT POPS
COVERING AT LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL PA EACH DAY TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK, BUT REALISTICALLY MUCH OF
THAT TIME PERIOD MAY END UP DRY IF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR WEST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING, WITH CLOUD COVER MAINLY CONFINED TO WHERE SHRA/TSRA IS
PRESENT. IN THE NEAR-TERM, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHRA AS IT
TRACKS CLOSER TO UNV; HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH FOG FORMATION, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT CONDITIONS AT JST/IPT OUTLINE
LOWER CEILINGS THAT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH CURRENT ECONUS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
OUTLINING DENDRITIC VALLEY FOG CLOSER TO BFD. GENERAL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ~08-09Z SUNDAY FOR ONSET OF RESTRICTIONS
AT BFD SO HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE 06Z
TAFS WITH MODERATE-TO-HIGH (~70-80%) CONFIDENCE. ELSEWHERE, FOG
FORMATION LOOKS LESS LIKELY WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LIGHT BREEZE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD; HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT UNV CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WITH WINDS
TRENDING TOWARDS CALM IN THE 08-12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. FOG BEGINS
TO MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE QUICKLY WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE/WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
06Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN LATE TUE.
WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...BEATY
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