808
FXUS61 KCTP 071056
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADDED DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL DANGEROUS HEAT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AFTER MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS DISSIPATE.
2) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE
AFTER MORNING FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATE.
LATEST SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING. THE FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY TO MID MORNING, AND THE STRATUS WILL MIX
OUT BY NOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED, BUT A STRAY
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND SFC MOISTURE. DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE
CAPPING WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS AT SUNRISE, IT SHOULD FEEL NOTICEABLY
LESS HUMID BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT LOW HUMIDITY AIR TO
STICK WITH US THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.
--------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY, WITH A 592 DM RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MID ATL AT 500 HPA. HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY STAY
ON THE LOW SIDE TUE BEFORE SURGING ON WED, WHEN THE SFC PATTERN
TAKES ON A MORE BERMUDA HIGH REGIME AND SW FLOW ADVECTS IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THURSDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH/EAST OF I-80/I-99. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, THIS WOULD
RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CARRY INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL BEFORE WE MAY GET A BIT OF RELIEF WITH A COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND, BUT EVEN THEN TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO.
LATEST NBM HAS 20-40 PCT POPS COVERING AT LEAST A PORTION OF
CENTRAL PA EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WEEK,
STARTING IN WEST-CENTRAL PA TUE AND COVERING MORE OF CENTRAL PA
WED-FRI AS HUMIDITY INCREASES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW
MUCH PRECIP THERE WILL BE EACH DAY AND IF CONVECTION MAY BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ERODE THE RIDGING, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
LOWER TEMPERATURES. AS OF RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
WOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT, BUT TIMING MAY CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING;
HOWEVER, GENERALLY EXPECT THESE TO SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BASED ON MOST RECENT NBM/GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
MAIN OUTLIER IN THIS TREND WILL BE JST WHERE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ON RECENT RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE CEILINGS
COULD HAND ON THROUGHOUT ~15/16Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL,
HAVE OUTLINED SLIGHTLY LONGER OF RESTRICTIONS AT THIS AIRFIELD
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY (> 90% PROBABILITY) TO
PREVAIL BETWEEN 16Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY. MULTIPLE CYCLES OF
GLAMP GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE BFD/IPT/UNV AT SOME RISK FOR
RESTRICTIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENDRITIC RIVER VALLEY FOG
TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY; HOWEVER, GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING IN
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SO HAVE DECIDED NOT TO HIT THESE
RESTRICTIONS *TOO* HARD ON THE 12Z TAF CYCLE, AND WILL FOREGO
MORE AGGRESSIVE MENTIONS TO FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY SUN & AGAIN LATE TUE.
WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...COLBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/COLBERT
AVIATION...BEATY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page