540
FXUS61 KCTP 080535
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING 48 HOURS.
MAINTAINED INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS, MAINLY NORTH,
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF INTO THE 50S.
2) LOW RHS
3) WARMTH SURGES AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
MAINLY NORTH, OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL OFF INTO THE 50S.
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE SHORT
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWAT VALUES FOR
EARLY JUNE WILL MINIMIZE THE OCCURRENCE FOR ANY FOG BELOW
1/2SM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
WHILE THE AIRMASS IS DRY, THE TEMPS SHOULD BE DIPPING TO AND
PERHAPS BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPS (MID-AFTN DEWPOINTS) IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT NORTH TO NE BREEZE, IF ANY, WILL COMBINE
WITH THE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S TO GIVE US A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: LOW RHS
RH WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S MON, AND 30S OVER THE
EAST ON TUES. PAIRED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND AND THE GREENED-
UP LANDSCAPE, THOUGH, IT SHOULD YIELD NO ELEVATED RISK FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
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KEY MESSAGE 3: WARMTH SURGES AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WHILE THE NBM MAX TEMPS HAVE INCHED LOWER BY 1-4F FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS HOT.
90S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD THURS AND FRI. THE ELEVATIONS OF THE
ALLEGHENIES WILL BE THE COOLEST SPOTS, BUT THE VALLEYS THERE
COULD ALSO GET TO 90F. HEAT INDEX/APPARENTT VALUES REMAIN
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR THOSE TWO DAYS.
THE NEW/COOLER TEMPS T-W ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE RAISED CLOUD
COVER AND HIGHER CHC OF PRECIP VS PREV GUIDANCE. CATEGORICAL
(80%+) POPS APPEAR TUES NIGHT OVER THE WEST AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED. THESE SHOULDN'T GET TOO FAR
TO THE EAST, PERHAPS STAYING W OF UNV/AOO. WED WILL HOLD
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE BULK OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHORTWAVES (OLD MCSS) CREST THE RIDGE AND MEET UP
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.
ONLY SLIGHT RELIEF ARRIVES SAT, BUT TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM/HOT.
THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS ARE FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS (AND PRECIP). ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP WOULD HELP OUT THE AREAS
THAT CONTINUE TO BE IN DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT, WITH VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LIKELY TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH N38 ALREADY OUTLINING A ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSION.
FOG WILL LIKELY STAY OUT OFF ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF
BFD, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS THE MOST PLENTIFUL. HAVE
RESOLVED THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE CLOSER TO NAM MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL SET-UP FOR VALLEY FOG. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE OUTSIDE OF IPT WHICH RECENT HREF/NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OCCURRING. AFTER 12Z MONDAY, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE HIGHER
JUNE SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOG TO LIKELY MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT
BFD WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE BOARD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA LATE.
WED-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/COLBERT
AVIATION...BEATY
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