381
FXUS61 KCTP 080721
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
321 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING HEAT RISK THROUGH LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING HEAT RISK THROUGH LATE WEEK
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH LATE WEEK ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY IS PROJECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
FCST MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES MOST LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA THRESHOLDS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. MAX TEMPS ARE
FCST TO APPROACH DAILY RECORDS IN A FEW LOCATIONS THU/FRI. THE
EARLY SEASON/MID-JUNE SWELTERING HEAT SHOULD SLOWLY EASE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT, WITH VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LIKELY TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH N38 ALREADY OUTLINING A ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSION.
FOG WILL LIKELY STAY OUT OFF ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF
BFD, WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS THE MOST PLENTIFUL. HAVE
RESOLVED THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE CLOSER TO NAM MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL SET-UP FOR VALLEY FOG. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE OUTSIDE OF IPT WHICH RECENT HREF/NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS TREND OCCURRING. AFTER 12Z MONDAY, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE HIGHER
JUNE SUN ANGLE ALLOWING FOG TO LIKELY MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AT
BFD WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE BOARD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA LATE.
WED-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BEATY
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