911
FXUS61 KCTP 081900
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* KEPT ADJUSTING SKY COVER DUE TO MUCH MORE MOISTURE IN LLVLS
THAN ANTICIPATED. IT HAS ALSO KEPT TEMPS DOWN 1-2F.
* DECREASED MAX TEMPS ON WED-THURS-FRI BY 1-2F
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT RISK LATE WEEK
2) INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN/POSSIBLE DROUGHT RELIEF
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HEAT RISK LATE WEEK
HEAT RISK SEEMS TO HAVE PLATEAUED AND PERHAPS IS ON THE WAY
DOWN. REASONS AGAINST WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY-LEVEL NUMBERS ARE
THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WOULD
SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN. CONSENSUS AMONG MOST OF OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES WAS TO NUDGE THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. BUT,
DEWPOINTS MAY RISE A LITTLE TO BALANCE, AND COME UP WITH HI/APPT
NUMBERS CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE RUNNING. IN ANY CASE, THE CHANGES
DID NOT REMOVE ALL THE RISK. WE MAY JUST WANT TO TONE-DOWN THE
MESSAGE A LITTLE DUE TO THE RECENT TRENDS IN CLOUDS/PRECIP CHCS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN/POSSIBLE DROUGHT RELIEF
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE BROKEN DOWN QUICKLY BY ENERGY AND
MOISTURE COMING FROM THE WEST. WE MAY HAVE 4-5 STRAIGHT DAYS
(STARTING LATE TOMORROW/TUES) WHEN SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL PA
COULD HAVE RAIN EACH DAY. THAT WOULD BE MOSTLY-WELCOME NEWS FOR
THE REGION. THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE S/E COULD
THEN BE IMPROVED, AND ANY HIGHER-THAN-NIL FIRE DANGER RISK
(CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE NW/ANF) COULD ALSO BE HELPED TO BECOME
BETTER.
DESPITE THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN CHCS AND THUNDER, SPC HAS THE
NEXT 5 DAYS IN ONLY THE "GENERAL THUNDER" CATEGORY (AND OUTSIDE
MENTIONABLE WORRY-LEVELS FOR DAYS 4-5). FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE A
PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS GOOD HEIGHT
FALLS WITH THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH ARE IN
STORE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR-MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MIX OUT & SCATTER, WITH VFR FAVORED REGIONWIDE BY
21Z-23Z MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRENDING SOUTHERLY AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW JERSEY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING DRIER,
LAND-MODIFIED AIR (PWATS MAINLY BETWEEN 0.50-0.75") ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT. A MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES, WITH PWATS AROUND
1.50" JUST WESTWARD WHERE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE HAS BEEN
WEAKER.
THE WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE CREEPING EASTWARD AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA, WITH EVEN A FEW
SHOWERS (COVERAGE <30%) POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
(PRIMARILY KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV) BETWEEN 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH THESE SHOWERS, THOUGH BRIEFLY STEADY RAIN MAY OCCUR GIVEN
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE TALL/SKINNY
LOW-CAPE (<500 J/KG) PROFILE WILL FAVOR RAINFALL EFFICIENCY OVER
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA LATE.
WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE
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