075
FXUS61 KCTP 090245
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* ADJUSTING SKY COVER UP AND RAISING OVERNIGHT TEMPS/MINS BY A
FEW DEG F ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF PA.
* DECREASED MAX TEMPS ON WED-THURS-FRI BY 1-2F
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA,
BUT UP TO SEVERAL DEG F COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT FROM THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EAST
2) HEAT RISK LATE WEEK
3) INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN/POSSIBLE
DROUGHT RELIEF
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA, BUT UP TO SEVERAL DEG F COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT FROM
THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY EAST
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE/THICKEN-UP FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A BUMP UP IN PWAT VALUES BY 3-4 TENTHS OF AN INCH
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEG MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS THERE.
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST, A LAYER OF STRATOCU WAS
CREATED BY A FAVORABLE LLVL (MEAN 925-850) TRAJECTORY OF
MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATL, THEN NORTH ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE FLOW IN THIS LAYER WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW BY
MIDNIGHT, LEADING TO THE CONTINUED STEADY EROSION OF THE CLOUD
DECK. THIS EARLIER CLOUD COVER HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN BY A
FEW DEG F RELATIVE TO SURROUNDING AREAS THAT HAD MORE SUN. THIS
OPPOSITE TREND IN SKY COVER BETWEEN OUR EASTERN AND WESTERN CWA
WILL LEAD TO COOLER MINS (BY SOME 5-8 DEG F) ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HEAT RISK LATE WEEK
HEAT RISK SEEMS TO HAVE PLATEAUED AND PERHAPS IS ON THE WAY
DOWN. REASONS AGAINST WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY-LEVEL NUMBERS ARE
THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AND OCNL RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WOULD
SERVE TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN. CONSENSUS AMONG MOST OF OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES WAS TO NUDGE THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. BUT,
DEWPOINTS MAY RISE A LITTLE TO BALANCE, AND COME UP WITH HI/APPT
NUMBERS CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE RUNNING. IN ANY CASE, THE CHANGES
DID NOT REMOVE ALL THE RISK. WE MAY JUST WANT TO TONE-DOWN THE
MESSAGE A LITTLE DUE TO THE RECENT TRENDS IN CLOUDS/PRECIP CHCS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN/POSSIBLE DROUGHT RELIEF
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE BROKEN DOWN QUICKLY BY ENERGY AND
MOISTURE COMING FROM THE WEST. WE MAY HAVE 4-5 STRAIGHT DAYS
(STARTING LATE TOMORROW/TUES) WHEN SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL PA
COULD HAVE RAIN EACH DAY. THAT WOULD BE MOSTLY-WELCOME NEWS FOR
THE REGION. THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE S/E COULD
THEN BE IMPROVED, AND ANY HIGHER-THAN-NIL FIRE DANGER RISK
(CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE NW/ANF) COULD ALSO BE HELPED TO BECOME
BETTER.
DESPITE THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN CHCS AND THUNDER, SPC HAS THE
NEXT 5 DAYS IN ONLY THE "GENERAL THUNDER" CATEGORY (AND OUTSIDE
MENTIONABLE WORRY-LEVELS FOR DAYS 4-5), BUT TIME WILL TELL IF
THE SEVERE RISK INCREASES AS THE EVENTS GROW NEARER. FRIDAY
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LOW/TROUGH
ARE IN STORE.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW END MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT WAS OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA
MUCH OF THE DAY HAS BEEN ERODING THIS EVENING. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING DRIER, LAND-MODIFIED
AIR (PWATS MAINLY BETWEEN 0.50-0.75") ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT. A MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP
ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES, WITH PWATS AROUND 1.50" JUST WESTWARD
WHERE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE HAS BEEN WEAKER.
THE WARM/MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE CREEPING EASTWARD AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA, WITH EVEN A FEW
SHOWERS (COVERAGE <30%) POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS
(PRIMARILY KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV) BETWEEN 09Z-18Z TUE. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS, THOUGH BRIEFLY
STEADY RAIN MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE. LIGHTNING
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE TALL/SKINNY LOW-CAPE (<500 J/KG) PROFILE WILL FAVOR
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY OVER LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASES INTO TUE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR FAVORED OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MORNING FOG. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA LATE.
WED-SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/-TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/TEARE
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