442
FXUS61 KCTP 100556
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TREND FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI IS SOLID.
HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME 100 HIS THU-FRI.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING INCREASED RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
3) TEMPERATURE RELIEF NOT LARGE IN MAGNITUDE, BUT A DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS A GOOD BET WITH HIGH PRESSURE AFTER THE COLD FRONT
SAT/SUN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING INCREASED
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY STILL ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THURS S/B 4-5F HOTTER THAN WED, AND FRIDAY WILL ADD ANOTHER
1-2F. WE'RE STILL KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS A SHADE COOLER THAN NBM
MEAN GUIDANCE, LEANING HEAVILY ON THE RELIABLE OL' MOS GUIDANCE
AND MULTI-OFFICE ENSEMBLE OF FORECASTERS. THE MAIN DRIVER OF
THAT CHANGE IS THE EXPECTED HIGHLY-VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND
OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF PRECIP. WARM FRONT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
NUDGE PRECIP NORTHEASTWARD ON THURS, AND WE COULD HAVE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO KNOCK OUT THE FORECASTER BIAS. SO, THE CHANGES ARE
MINIMAL IN MAGNITUDE, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE DEWPOINTS,
AS WELL. THE DEWPOINT FORECAST IS LIKELY NOT TO CHANGE WITH THE
AVAILABILITY OF SUNLIGHT, AND COULD ACTUALLY BE BUMPED UP A TINY
BIT WITH THE OCCASIONAL PRECIP MAKING THE GROUND AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MORE MOIST. SO, THE APPARENT TS/HEAT INDICES FOR THURS
AND FRO STILL POKE ABOVE 100 FOR A FEW TOWNS AROUND
HARRISBURG/LANCASTER/YORK ON THU. FRI SHOULD BE 1-2F HIGHER, AND
LIKELY TO NECESSITATE A HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR A FEW
COUNTIES. WORRIES FOR EXTREME HEAT WARNING ARE LOW, WITH HARDLY
A PIXEL OR TWO OF 105+ SHOWING UP IN THE APPT GRIDS THAT DAY.
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY (50%) AS TO JUST NOT LARGE IN
MAGNITUDE,HOW MANY 100S SHOW UP ON THURS AFTN, WE PLAN TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY HEAT PRODUCTS FOR THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER, FRI LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD BET (70%) FOR A FEW COUNTIES, IF NOT ALL THE LOWER
SUSQ AND NEARBY COUNTIES, TO REACH THE 100 HEAT INDEX MARK. BUT,
NEITHER DAY INSTILLS A 50% CHC CONFIDENCE OF 105+, AND
THEREFORE NO EXTREME HEAT WATCH AT THIS POINT.
---------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WELCOME RAIN FOR THE MOST PART THIS WEEK, BEGINNING VERY SOON,
AND LASTING UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (CFROPA) LATER FRI AND
FRI NIGHT. DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH, HIGH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
BUT, THE SMALL RIDGE THAT PUMPS UP OVERHEAD LATE THU COULD BE A
SETBACK FOR HOW WIDESPREAD THE THREAT WILL BE. FOR THE TIME
BEING, SPC HAS ALL OF THE CWA IN THE 15% (EVENTUAL SLIGHT) RISK
CATEGORY. THE REPEATED SHOTS OF SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NEXT
3-4 DAYS IS LIKELY TO YIELD LOWER FFG THRESHOLDS AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE, TOO. BUT, IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY
RECENTLY, AND EVERYTHING IS GROWING AND THIRSTY, READY TO SOAK
UP AS MUCH AS IT CAN. AS ALWAYS, TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING CAN BE
BAD. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOIL SATURATION AND OTHER FACTORS
THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
---------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 3: TEMPERATURE RELIEF NOT LARGE IN MAGNITUDE, BUT A
DECREASE IN HUMIDITY IS A GOOD BET WITH HIGH PRESSURE AFTER THE
COLD FRONT SAT/SUN.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT WILL SWEEP OUT
THE HUMID AIR, BUT REALLY FOR ONLY ONE OR TWO DAYS. RHS DIP INTO
THE 30S EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE MAX TEMPS DON'T GET
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. PERHAPS ON DAYS 7 & 8 WE'LL BE A
LITTLE COOLER, BACK TO NORMAL MAXES (75-83F) THANKS TO A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND CLOUDS/PRECIP ARRIVING/PASSING THROUGH. CFROPA
ALSO AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY SOMETIME MON OR TUES OF NEXT
WEEK, AND COULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR
HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WILL TRACK CLOSE TO JST/AOO/UNV IN THE NEAR-TERM WITH MVFR
CEILINGS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. IT IS OF NOTE THAT SOME MORE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FILL IN QUITE QUICKLY WITH IFR CONDITIONS,
POTENTIALLY A LITTLE QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE MIGHT INITIALLY
INDICATE BASED ON MOST RECENT GLAMP/HREF/NBM MODEL GUIDANCE,
THUS HAVE DECIDED TO SPEED UP RESTRICTIONS SLIGHTLY BUT THESE
COULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO SLOW, THUS LOW-TO-MODERATE (30-40%)
CONFIDENCE ON IFR TIMING AT THIS TIME. BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE
NEAR-TERM WERE TO QUELL TSRA MENTIONS OVERNIGHT GIVEN SLIGHTLY
LESS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT PLAY ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON
MORE RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS COMPARED
TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE 06Z TAF CYCLE ALSO RESOLVES SOME
DRYING DURING THE MORNING HOURS (BETWEEN 10-15Z WEDNESDAY)
BEFORE BRINING IN MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA NEAR AND
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY.
RECENT HREF PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MARKEDLY INCREASE
ACROSS W PA CLOSER TO 15Z, WITH RECENT GUIDANCE ALSO OUTLINING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THIS TREND OUTLINES A PRETTY GOOD
SHOT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE 16Z-22Z TIMEFRAME
MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GREATEST CONCERN
WITH RESPECT TO TSRA WILL BE COVERAGE, THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO
OUTLINE THESE CHANCES IN PROB30S TO SEE HOW OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
TREND CLOSER TO 12Z. IT DOES APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT HIGHEST
POTENTIAL IS GENERALLY UNV/IPT/MST/LNS, THUS HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPOS/FM GROUPS BEING ADDED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES. AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF, WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHES OF
CLEARING FOR SOME IFR/LIFR POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, AS WINDS DO
TREND DOWNWARD; HOWEVER, TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO TANK AIRFIELDS
MORE THAN MVFR AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS FROPA BRINGS LINE OF -TSRA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...VFR FAVORED EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FROPA
BRINGS CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA LATER IN THE DAY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/BEATY
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BEATY
AVIATION...BEATY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page