446
FXUS61 KCTP 101825
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
225 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. DID ADJUST THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY TO MATCH LATEST RADAR
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING INCREASED RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
2) DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDER WITH
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
3) A REFRESHING DECREASE IN HUMIDITY IS A GOOD BET THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AFTER A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1:
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ADVECTING IN A VERY WARM TO
HOT AIRMASS, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN HOW HIGH THE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES GET DUE TO VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS (ESPECIALLY FRIDAY). THE
CONTINUED THINKING IS THAT THE NBM IS A BIT TOO HIGH WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
RECENT HIGH BIAS. THEREFORE, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES, WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NBM.
ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, THE FORECAST APPARENT TS/HEAT INDICES
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL GET TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY THE
HARRISBURG/LANCASTER/YORK AREAS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE 1-2F HIGHER.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS,
BUT THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES.
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KEY MESSAGE 2:
UNDERNEATH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF WARM & MOIST AIR ALONG
WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WITH MANY STORMS ON RADAR AND LINGERING QUESTIONS ABOUT
HOW STRONG THEY'LL GET. IF MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAN DEVELOP LARGE
ENOUGH COLD POOLS, AN ELEVATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
MATERIALIZE IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. SUCH A SCENARIO CLOUD PRODUCE
A SWATH OF MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE (MOST LIKELY ON
THURSDAY).
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (CFROPA) WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. DYNAMICS
IN THE FORM OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH, HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT, THE SMALL
RIDGE THAT PUMPS UP OVERHEAD LATE THU COULD BE A SETBACK FOR HOW
WIDESPREAD THE THREAT WILL BE.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS TIMING/SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. A
FASTER PROGRESSION COULD MEAN THE COLD FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA
BEFORE PEAK HEATING (LOWER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS), WHILE A
LATER ARRIVAL COULD SPELL MORE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
BEST MID-AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF PA
PRECLUDING ANY HIGHER SEVERE RISKS.
THE REPEATED SHOTS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS IS LIKELY TO YIELD LOWER FFG THRESHOLDS AND SOME
FLASH FLOODING WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE, TOO. BUT, IT HAS BEEN VERY
DRY RECENTLY, AND EVERYTHING IS GROWING AND THIRSTY, READY TO
SOAK UP AS MUCH AS IT CAN. AS ALWAYS, TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING
CAN BE BAD. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOIL SATURATION AND OTHER
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. BACK-TO-BACK-TO-BACK
MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
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KEY MESSAGE 3:
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM (HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN SOME
LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY), BUT DEW POINTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER (IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S, INSTEAD OF THE 70S). THEN, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. THIS WILL BE DUE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 18Z, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT, WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS IN ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS BEHIND
THOSE SHOWERS (ESPECIALLY AT KJST). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL BE AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS (KIPT, KMDT, AND KLNS).
AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF, CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IN SEEING
IFR- OR- WORSE CONDITIONS REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE, EXCEPT AT
KBFD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA.
FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS FROPA BRINGS LINE OF -TSRA.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR FAVORED EARLY, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS FROPA
BRINGS CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA LATER IN THE DAY.
MONDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BJG
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/BANGHOFF/BJG
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BANGHOFF/BJG
AVIATION...BJG
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