390
FXUS61 KCTP 270750
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
350 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
HEAT WAVE TO START THE MONTH OF JULY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF JUNE
2) SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO START THE
MONTH OF JULY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PERIODS OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF JUNE
CLOUDY/HUMID/RAINY START TO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JUNE ACROSS CPA.
HIGHS TODAY HOLDING IN THE 70S FOR MOST WILL BE 5-10 BELOW THE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE. WE TRIED TO EMPHASIZE PERIODS OF [STEADIER,
MAINLY LIGHT] RAIN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED/SPARSE,
SHORTER DURATION RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT DECREASING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
TO PRECEDE ANOTHER DIURNAL UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-80.
MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ~5 DEGREES WARMER VS. SATURDAY WITH
FCST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND RANGES FROM <0.10" IN THE NORTHERN TIER TO 0.25-0.50"
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
---------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO
START THE MONTH OF JULY
CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTABILITY REMAINS HIGH FOR A LARGE AND
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DELIVER A SIGNIFICANT,
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO START THE MONTH OF JULY.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100F, COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY, WILL RESULT IN FCST MAX HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS EQUATES TO WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK AND HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAT WWA HEADLINES. THURSDAY
7/2 LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS TIME. THE HEAT WAVE
COULD LAST INTO THE JULY 4TH/INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVES MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS/WEAKEN THE HEAT
DOME TO SOME EXTENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM,
BRINGING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.
LATEST QPF TRENDS FAVOR LITTLE TO NO RAIN MONDAY-FRIDAY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED AIRMASS/TERRAIN-DRIVEN DIURNAL CONVECTION OR
POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY (THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES) ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN A CLASSIC RING OF FIRE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THIS SETUP APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO UNFOLD DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES, WITH SCATTERED -RA/-SHRA MOVING IN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INTERMITTENT IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STEADIEST SHOWERS (PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5"
OVERNIGHT, IMPROVING RAINFALL EFFICIENCY), THOUGH MOST SHOWERS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR FAVORED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
THE NORTHERN EXTENT & ONSET OF THIS ACTIVITY AS A RESULT OF
DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE TO START, WITH THE HRRR BRINGING
PATCHES OF STEADIER RAIN FARTHER NORTH (KBFD/KIPT) & MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE FARTHER SOUTH. BEST FORCING FOR A MORE ORGANIZED BATCH
OF RAIN IS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STEADY RAIN IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION. THE PROBABILITY FOR LIGHTNING IS LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...FOG AND LOW CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MON-WED...AM FOG; OTHERWISE VFR. TRENDING HOTTER WITH ISOLD PM
T-STORMS PSBL.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/TEARE
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