010
FXUS61 KCTP 271550
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1150 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
HEAT WAVE TO START THE MONTH OF JULY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRYING TREND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH JUST SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS. ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IS LIKELY SUNDAY.
2) SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO START THE
MONTH OF JULY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRYING TREND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH JUST SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS. ANOTHER FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IS LIKELY SUNDAY.
THICK, LAYERED CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA
OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENN WHERE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WERE
FOUND.
THE CLOUDS AND AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXITING
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY AND POCONOS ALONG WITH
SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY JUST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EARLIER AREA
OF MODERATELY STRONG, SOUTHERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT IS REPLACED BY
MUCH WEAKER LIFT WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER.
HREF CLOUD PANELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED OVERCAST AREA OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA WITH TEMPS CLIMBING ANOTHER 7-8 DEG F
FROM THEIR 15Z VALUES.
AREAS OF FOG TO PRECEDE ANOTHER DIURNAL UPTICK IN RAIN SHOWERS
AND A FEW T-STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF I-80. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ~5 DEGREES WARMER VS.
SATURDAY WITH FCST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND RANGES FROM <0.10" IN THE NORTHERN
TIER TO 0.25-0.50" ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO
START THE MONTH OF JULY
CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTABILITY REMAINS HIGH FOR A LARGE AND
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DELIVER A SIGNIFICANT,
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO START THE MONTH OF JULY.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100F, COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY, WILL RESULT IN FCST MAX HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING 105F. THIS EQUATES TO WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK AND HIGH PROBABILITY OF HEAT WWA HEADLINES. THURSDAY
7/2 LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS TIME. THE HEAT WAVE
COULD LAST INTO THE JULY 4TH/INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVES MAY ACT TO SUPPRESS/WEAKEN THE HEAT
DOME TO SOME EXTENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM,
BRINGING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS.
LATEST QPF TRENDS FAVOR LITTLE TO NO RAIN MONDAY-FRIDAY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED AIRMASS/TERRAIN-DRIVEN DIURNAL CONVECTION OR
POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY (THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES) ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN A CLASSIC RING OF FIRE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THIS SETUP APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO UNFOLD DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS WILL LOWER WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES, WITH SCATTERED -RA/-SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
BEST FORCING IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING, SO WE EXPECT THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL TO BE HIGHEST THROUGH MIDDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING IS LOW.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR OR
IFR CEILINGS ARE FAVORED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IPT. IFR IS A GOOD
BET AT JST AND AOO FOR MUCH OF TODAY, WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
AT UNV. LATER TONIGHT, CALM WINDS, ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL, AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...FOG AND LOW CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MON-WED...AM FOG; OTHERWISE VFR. TRENDING HOTTER WITH ISOLD PM
T-STORMS PSBL. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/COLBERT
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