204
FXUS61 KCTP 030849
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
449 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED FULTON COUNTY TO HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY THEN EASES NEXT
WEEK
2) RISK MANAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOKS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY
THEN EASES NEXT WEEK
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS HEAT
WAVE HEADING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD FLATTEN INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN TRANSITION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO VALUES MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JULY.
EXTREME HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
THE ONLY CHANGE BEING THE ADDITION OF FULTON COUNTY TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY ON JULY 4TH.
-------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: RISK MANAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE
RAIN OUTLOOKS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN/UNCLEAR. PROXIMITY TO THE HEAT DOME CORE
CASTS SOME DOUBT FOR TODAY WITH WARM MID LEVELS AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILES, ALTHOUGH MOST CAMS (INCLUDING HREF AND
REFS) SEEM TO AGREE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP
AND TRACK EAST SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE
AND PREDICTABILITY FORECAST IN SEVERE WX TERMS EXTENDS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN THE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. WPC NOW HAS A PAIR OF LEVEL
2/4 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOKS COVERING MUCH OF CPA IN WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE HEAVY RAIN SETUP COMPLETE WITH HI
PWATS POOLING ALONG A WAVY, EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY INTO THE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER ALONG A
BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THERE IS AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THESE REACH
BFD, BUT WE WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. FOR NOW, WE HAVE ADDED PROB30S FOR BFD, UNV,
AND IPT TO HIGHLIGHT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS
WELL, BUT THERE IS LESS THAN A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY
IMPACT ANY OF THE OTHER TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS,
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY IF STORMS MOVE DIRECTLY OVER ANY
AIRFIELDS.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S/LOW 100S. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PATCHY AM FOG; OTHERWISE VFR. HOT & HUMID WITH PM
T-STORMS PSBL. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS POSSIBLE.
SUN-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON T-STORMS.
CLIMATE
BRADFORD REACHED 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON 7/2. THIS TIED
THE OLD RECORD OF 90 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1966.
WILLIAMSPORT REACHED 100 DEGREES, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF
99 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1911 AND 1931.
HARRISBURG DID REACH 102 DEGREES, JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD OF
104 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1966.
MANY RECORD HIGHS WERE SET IN 1966 AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WHILE RECORD LOWS WERE COMMON BACK IN 1982.
EARLIER INFORMATION BELOW.
BRADFORD REACHED 89 DEGREES WED, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 88
DEGREES SET IN 1963. HARRISBURG CAME UP ONE DEGREE SHORT OF
TYING THEIR OWN RECORD MAX WED.
TRIPLE DIGIT MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
(LSV) TODAY AND FRIDAY, AND 90S FOR SATURDAY.
THE LAST TIME HARRISBURG OBSERVED CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAXT
GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100F WAS BACK IN 2011 ON JULY 21-22.
THE RECORD NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MAXT >= 100F IS 3
AND HAS OCCURRED 5 TIMES: (ALL IN THE MONTH OF JULY)
1999-07-16 TO 1999-07-18
1999-07-04 TO 1999-07-06
1991-07-19 TO 1991-07-21
1966-07-02 TO 1966-07-04
1936-07-09 TO 1936-07-11
THE LAST TIME HARRISBURG HIT THE CENTURY MARK WAS JULY 16TH IN
2024. PRIOR TO THAT, IT WAS JULY 19TH IN 2020.
HARRISBURG AVERAGES 1 DAY ANNUALLY WITH A MAXT >100F. THE MOST
NUMBER OF DAYS OBSERVED IN A YEAR IS 6 IN 1999.
THE RECORD MAXES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE IN JEOPARDY:
STATION/DATE...07/02...07/03...07/04...07/05.
MDT.............104.....107.....104.....102..
IPT..............99.....100.....100.....100..
AOO..............97......97......97......94..
JST..............98.....100.....100.....101..
BFD..............90......91......91......91..
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ019-
025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056-058-063.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056-058-063.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ057-059-
064>066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO/BEATY
CLIMATE...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
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