407
FXUS61 KCTP 192040
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A DRY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TODAY AND MONDAY DRY, BUT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: TODAY AND MONDAY DRY, BUT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ON TUESDAY.
NOT A BAD AFTERNOON OUTSIDE, SOME AREAS OF SMOKE, BUT NOT LIKE
BACK ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF A BREEZE AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR WHAT IS NORMALLY THE HOTTEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER.
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY FOR STORMS.
MADE A STORM TOTAL GRID FOR RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY, HEAVIEST
AMTS ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST, WHERE DEWPOINTS FCST TO COME
UP QUICKLY INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY (SATURDAY) WITH
HIGH PW VALUES, AND STRONG DYNAMICS, AS AN ABNORMALLY DEEP LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALREADY HAD 2 SUCH
DEEP SYSTEMS THIS SUMMER, THIS WOULD BE THE THIRD ONE. MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO HEAVY RAIN, BUT LIKE SATURDAY, SPEED
OF STORMS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS. MAIN CONCERN WITH HYDRO IS HAVING THE ACTIVITY IN THE
SAME LOCATIONS AS WHERE THE RAIN WAS ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS
YESTERDAY HAD 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN, WHILE SOME SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH HAD NEXT TO NOTHING. SOME AREAS TOO
WET SO FAR THIS JULY, WHILE OTHERS ARE STILL TOO DRY FROM THE
LACK OF RAIN IN JUNE.
AFTER MID WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL, AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF JULY.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND KEEPS THE WEATHER RAIN-
FREE.
PATCHY RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT (MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS), WITH 6SM BR INCLUDED FOR KBFD/KIPT GIVEN
RELATIVELY HIGHER PROBABILITIES (10%) OF LOWER VISIBILITIES ON
THE 12Z HREF.
SKIES WILL REMAIN HAZY DUE TO A LIGHT AMOUNT OF SMOKE THAT WAS
BROUGHT SOUTHWARD BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, PRIMARILY ABOVE
THE SURFACE. BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR/RRFS MODELS (WHICH
HAVE THE ABILITY TO MODEL SMOKE), THIS SMOKE WILL LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW WHILE STILL BEING TOO LIGHT TO BRING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH COLD
FROPA EXPECTED BETWEEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. T-STORMS MORE LIKELY
ON TUESDAY, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
THU-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ024-
033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...TEARE
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