794
FXUS61 KCTP 200528
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A DRY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS RETURNS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR T-STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS RETURNS ON
TUESDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING WILL
DRIFT SE OVER PA TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WIND, AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK (AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS) ADVECTS NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
WHILE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OCCURS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF PA.
NO REAL CHANGE TO THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY FOR STORMS.
MADE A STORM TOTAL GRID FOR RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY, HEAVIEST
AMTS ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST, WHERE DEWPOINTS FCST TO COME
UP QUICKLY INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
TUESDAY LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY
(SATURDAY) WITH HIGH PW VALUES, AND STRONG DYNAMICS, AS AN
ABNORMALLY DEEP, SUB-100MB LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEFT EXIT
REGION/STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVING OVER THE CWA AT
PEAK HEATING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WE'VE ALREADY HAD 2 SIMILARLY DEEP SYSTEMS THIS SUMMER AND
THIS WOULD BE THE THIRD ONE. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO
HEAVY RAIN, BUT LIKE SATURDAY, SPEED OF STORMS WOULD LIKELY
LIMIT THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS.
MAIN CONCERN WITH HYDRO IS HAVING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WHERE THE RAIN WAS ON SATURDAY. SOME AREAS
YESTERDAY HAD 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN, WHILE SOME SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH HAD NEXT TO NOTHING. SOME AREAS TOO
WET SO FAR THIS JULY, WHILE OTHERS ARE STILL TOO DRY FROM THE
LACK OF RAIN IN JUNE.
AFTER MID WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO A BIT BELOW
NORMAL, AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF JULY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS MEANS VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS OVERALL LOW ON ANY IMPACTFUL FOG REACHING THE AIRFIELDS
OUTSIDE OF KBFD. THE PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE REMAIN LESS THAN 30%.
SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE NORTH TODAY
AND BE PRESENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DENSITY OF THIS SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR/RRFS
MODELS (WHICH HAVE THE ABILITY TO MODEL SMOKE), THIS SMOKE WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW WHILE STILL BEING TOO LIGHT TO
BRING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH
COLD FROPA EXPECTED BETWEEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. T-STORMS MORE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
THU-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/MARTIN
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
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