261
FXUS61 KCTP 200958
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
558 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY ARE EVEN MORE CERTAIN.
* SMOKE TODAY WILL BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN PA
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR-CERTAIN FOR TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.
2) THICKER WILDFIRE SMOKE SHOULD STAY MAINLY OVER WESTERN PA,
WITH LEVELS BARELY NOTICEABLE IN THE EAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR-CERTAIN FOR TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED.
SEVERE WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE DOCKET. TUESDAY (DAY 2) HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC FOR MANY DAYS AS A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AND DANGEROUS WEATHER DAY. THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND IS VERY CERTAIN, AND COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE OVER
THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR HAIL IS
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE THIS PAST SATURDAY, AND THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS ABOUT THE SAME.
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD IN THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS WILL ROLL THROUGH SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PA LATE TONIGHT, PERHAPS HELPING TO RAISE DEWPOINTS.
IT LOOKS LIKE A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CHARGE IN FROM THE NW
AND CROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REAL COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT. IT MAY ARRIVE TOO
LATE (SOME STABILIZATION COULD ALREADY HAPPEN) AND HAVE LITTLE
LEFT TO WORK WITH BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA TO MAKE MUCH
OF A SEVERE THREAT.
THERE IS ALSO A FLOODING THREAT, BUT ONLY IF THERE WILL BE A
LOCATION OR TWO THAT GETS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD MOVEMENT TO THE STORM CELLS, LIMITING THE
THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH,
PWATS 1.5-2".
---------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: THICKER WILDFIRE SMOKE SHOULD STAY MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PA, WITH LEVELS BARELY NOTICEABLE IN THE EAST.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT/ACTION DAY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWESTERN PA WHERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. HRRR SMOKE PLUME PROGS KEEP THE THICKER SMOKE
OVER WESTERN PA WITH MUCH LESS OVER THE EAST. THE LIGHT WIND
THIS MORNING WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP THE NEAR-SFC SMOKE FROM SPREADING
TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS MEANS VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS OVERALL LOW ON ANY IMPACTFUL FOG REACHING THE AIRFIELDS
OUTSIDE OF KBFD. THE PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE REMAIN LESS THAN 30%.
SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE NORTH TODAY
AND BE PRESENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DENSITY OF THIS SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR/RRFS
MODELS (WHICH HAVE THE ABILITY TO MODEL SMOKE), THIS SMOKE WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW WHILE STILL BEING TOO LIGHT TO
BRING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH
COLD FROPA EXPECTED BETWEEN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. T-STORMS MORE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY, WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
THU-FRI...VFR CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ024-033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/MARTIN
AVIATION...BOWEN
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