541
FXUS61 KCTP 220523
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
123 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT FOR THIS EVENING HAS LARGELY
DECREASED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
* INCLUDED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE
PA TOMORROW AND OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING WITH NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.
2) OUTSIDE OF SOME STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS ACROSS LANCASTER
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT HAS LARGELY
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR OUTLINES A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA COUNTY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEHIND THIS CLUSTER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
CLEARFIELD/CAMBRIA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SEVERE THREAT
HAS LARGELY WANED GIVEN STABILITY ACROSS THE REGION DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE SHEAR PARAMETERS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSIS PARAMETERS. FLOODING THREAT ALSO REMAINS FAIRLY
LOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY AREA OF REAL CONCERN GIVEN
THE OVERALL LACK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND A FALL OFF OF RAINFALL RATES OVERALL. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED TODAY; HOWEVER,
THE SIGNAL IS NOT SUPER STRONG AT THIS TIME WITH OVERALL DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS STILL HAVING A BIT OF WAYS TO FALL BEFORE FOG
FORMATION OCCURS TONIGHT. IF FOG FORMS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
RAPIDLY CHANGING DRIVING CONDITIONS COULD BE PRESENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: OUTSIDE OF SOME STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
LANCASTER COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
LANCASTER COUNTY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MORE RECENT NBM GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION MENTIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND
THIS IS SHOWN IN THE MOST RECENT FORECAST. IF THE COLD FRONT
TRENDS SLOWER, IT APPEARS THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY SHEAR IN PLACE TO BRING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS OF NOTE THAT INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUPER SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN MORNING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH
COULD TAMPER THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THE SLOWER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOLUTION PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SATURDAY EVENING BASED ON MOST
RECENT NBM MODEL GUIDANCE. TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, OVERALL AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS AND CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS PROGGED
BY NBM MODEL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THIS, NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNALS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS REMAINING. HREF/GLAMP
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OUTLINE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS (BFD/JST) SO HAVE
CONTINUED TO OUTLINE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE UPDATED FORECAST
PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE, GUIDANCE PAINTS A MORE OPTIMISTIC PICTURE
FOR FLYING CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, LIKELY
DUE PRECIPITATION NOT BEING AS WIDESPREAD AS ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT UNV/IPT
AS WELL FOR A FEW HOURS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE WESTERN
AIRFIELDS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE 14-16Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME
WITH HIGH (~70-80%) CONFIDENCE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
(~80-90%) CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE AFTER PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI...SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG ACROSS NW PA FRIDAY
MORNING; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW-END (< 20%) CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM ACROSS SW PA.
SUN...INCREASING CHANCES OF PM SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH SOME
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BEATY
KEY MESSAGES...BEATY
DISCUSSION...BEATY
AVIATION...BEATY/BOWEN
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