318
FXUS61 KCTP 230515
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
115 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FORECAST ROLLING ALONG NICELY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY, TRANQUIL AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED
INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY, TRANQUIL AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY.
SKY IS CLEARING NICELY NOW AFTER A BIT OF A STRUGGLE TO GET RID
OF THE THICK BLANKET OF CU ACROSS THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ELEV CLOUDS OVER THE SE ARE ALSO HEADED OUT TO THE EAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OVERHEAD. FOG STILL LOOKS
PROBABLE IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE N.
PREVIOUS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WITH A REFRESHINGLY DRY
AIRMASS ON THE WAY. EVENING STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS WILL FALL
APART/ERODE AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT,
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE
MID 50S IN THE SE. WITH RIVER TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN THE
INCOMING AIRMASS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, ENSURING A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
AVERAGE AND DRY/LESS-HUMID WEATHER. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS EAST OF PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN
WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTH. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. AN
UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST US WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED, BUT LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FAVOR TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF JULY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. TAPERING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
SUPPORT FOG IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN PA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA AIRFIELDS, BUT
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES A MENTION OF VICINITY FOG AT
KBFD AS THAT LOCATION HAS THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCE OF
IMPACTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY, BEFORE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. EACH DAY WILL BE MARKED BY DRY CONDITIONS
AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER - IDEAL FOR FLYING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG ACROSS NW PA FRIDAY
MORNING; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW-END (< 20%) CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PA.
SUN...INCREASING CHANCES OF PM SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH SOME
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON...STILL A CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
KEY MESSAGES...BANGHOFF
DISCUSSION...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BOWEN
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