605
FXUS61 KCTP 230742
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
*LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND MINIMUM RH THIS AFTERNOON
*WPC ADDED A LEVEL 1/4 EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK FOR MONDAY 7/27
KEY MESSAGES
1) PLEASANT/DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY
2) MORE HUMID WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PLEASANT/DRY PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LAST
WEEKEND OF JULY
VALLEY FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE N&W ALLEGHENIES PER
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP. BASED ON 07Z OBSERVATIONS, SOME OF
THE USUALLY COLDER SITES IN THIS AREA COULD PRINT MORNING LOW
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S.
FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPS
ALSO REBOUNDING NICELY UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE PLEASANT/DRY
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY. SOUNDING
PROFILES SUPPORTED LOWERING TD THIS AFTERNOON FURTHER REDUCING
RH WHICH IS ALREADY QUITE COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER CPA TONIGHT SETTING UP ANOTHER
SEASONABLY COOL/COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH MORE VALLEY FOG INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH SIGNALS A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. A STRAY SHOWER OR T-STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WESTERN PA WITH PRECIP ODDS LESS
THAN 20%.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MORE HUMID WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO NEXT WEEK
THE PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING IS CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.
AMPLE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ENERGIES SET TO DIG INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH POSITION WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC INTRODUCED A BROAD LEVEL 1/4 MARGINAL
EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK FOR D5/MONDAY JULY 27 THAT COVERS MOST OF
CPA. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL COULD SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN WHERE GREATER RISK CORRIDORS MAY DEVELOP
IS LOW, AND WILL LARGELY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
IN THE DAYS 4-5/SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIODS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AWAY OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. TAPERING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL
SUPPORT FOG IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHERN PA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA AIRFIELDS, BUT
THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE INCLUDES A MENTION OF VICINITY FOG AT
KBFD AS THAT LOCATION HAS THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCE OF
IMPACTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY, BEFORE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. EACH DAY WILL BE MARKED BY DRY CONDITIONS
AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER - IDEAL FOR FLYING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...SOME POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG ACROSS NW PA FRIDAY
MORNING; OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SAT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW-END (< 20%) CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PA.
SUN...INCREASING CHANCES OF PM SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH SOME
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON...STILL A CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BANGHOFF/BOWEN
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