588
FXUS61 KCTP 080209
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* CONTINUED TO TARGET HIGHEST POPS AND RAINFALL OVER THE NW FOR
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING LOCALIZED THREAT FOR
GUSTY WIND, AND RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING LOCALIZED THREAT FOR
GUSTY WIND, AND RAIN HEAVY ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAINLY OVER
THE NEXT 2 HRS - PROGRESSING EAST FROM CURRENT RADAR POSITIONS,
AND THEN AGAIN BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST. SOME OF THE CELLS
ACROSS NRN PA DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN IN THEM, AND RECENT RAINFALL
HAS MADE LOWER FFGS THERE THAN MANY PLACES IN THE CWA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THESE CELLS AS THE CURRENT
CLUSTERING AND CELL MOVEMENTS MAKE IT SEEM LIKE TRAINING IS
STARTING TO OCCUR.
THE RAIN/SHOWERS ARRIVING IN THE WEST BEFORE MORNING WILL BE AT
A TIME WHICH WOULD HELP STABILIZE THINGS OVER THE NW HALF OR
MORE OF THE CWA ON SAT AS RAIN/CLOUDS KEEP THE CAPES LOW OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE SE STILL HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. SPC OUTLOOK IS FOR A MRGL RISK OF
SVR GUSTS IN THAT AREA. IT IS CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS/STABILIZATION PRESENT THERE IN PRIME TIME.
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A POSSIBILITY, TOO, BUT PERHAPS LESS THAN
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCLUDE SOME
PROB30S FOR EARLY NIGHTTIME CONVECTION TONIGHT, THEN MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE FAVORABLE AREA
(RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX) FOR BROAD
MESOSCALE LIFT AND CONVECTION SLIDES ESE ACROSS PA
OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY.
ALSO TWEAKED THE TIMING AND DURATION OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN
CONVECTION (AND FOG) LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PWATS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MEANS THAT ANY OF THE STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD THEY
CROSS PATHS WITH A TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...POCKETS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MOSTLY DRY, SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
W PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/LAMBRECH
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