350
FXUS61 KCTP 080508
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
108 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A SHORT BREAK ON SUNDAY FROM THE RECENT STORMY WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STILL A CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL A CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OHIO WILL BE SUCH THAT MUCH
OF CENTRAL PA WILL NOT A LOT OF TIME TO HEAT UP TODAY. ALSO THE
AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE. THUS EXPECT LESS
COVERAGE THAN ON FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA THAT STILL HAS THE HIGER
DEWPOINTS IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE TO HEAT UP TODAY AS WELL. NOT A LOT OF SHEAR,
BUT CAPE IS STILL UP THERE.
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT WITH
THE ADVECTION OF MORE HUMID AND HOT AIR AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN
STATES, AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG IN A FAIRLY FAST
WEST TO EAST JET STREAM, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE AREA AFTER SUNDAY AGAIN. THE CURRENT PATTERN LIKELY TO
HOLD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A COOL DOWN LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE, THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO INCLUDE SOME
PROB30S FOR EARLY NIGHTTIME CONVECTION TONIGHT, THEN MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE FAVORABLE AREA
(RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX) FOR BROAD
MESOSCALE LIFT AND CONVECTION SLIDES ESE ACROSS PA
OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY.
ALSO TWEAKED THE TIMING AND DURATION OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN
CONVECTION (AND FOG) LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PWATS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MEANS THAT ANY OF THE STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD THEY
CROSS PATHS WITH A TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...POCKETS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
T-STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
SUN...MOSTLY DRY, SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
W PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON-WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/LAMBRECH
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