064
FXUS61 KCTP 081835
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
235 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
* ADDED PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED. SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHWEST PA.
2) MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED. SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST PA.
THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW OFF TO THE EAST
OF OUR CWA. SATELLITE SHOWS SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
LINE, BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1500
TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH 25 TO
35 KNOTS OF SHEAR, SO IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
PA LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL PA AND WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT SOUTH OF I-80.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY DAY, OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA. THE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE COMING WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK
AND SPC HAS MUCH OF THE REGION OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL, AND WPC HAS PLACED ALL OF CENTRAL PA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS, BUT THE DETAILS WILL
BE WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT TRACKED NEAR MDT AND
LNS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW WELL TO THE EAST OF BOTH SITES
AND ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE ISOLATED. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT JST AND AOO,
BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 20Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET AND WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS HAPPEN TO MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER AN AIRFIELD, BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY OCCUR. THE CHANCES
FOR THIS APPEAR TO BE LOW AND PRECIP MENTIONS HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT
OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
PA LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BFD APPEARS TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY IMPACTS, SO A PROB30 HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED THERE. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORMS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN I-80, SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
INCLUDING MENTIONS OF RAIN ANYWHERE ELSE.
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD FORM OVERNIGHT OVER
NORTHWEST PA, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BFD AND
POTENTIALLY IPT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS
WELL, BUT IMPACTS AT ANY OTHER AIRFIELDS APPEAR UNLIKELY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 14Z, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MOSTLY DRY, SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
W PA.
MON-THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...BAUCO
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