858
FXUS61 KCTP 082344
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
744 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
* ADDED PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED. SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHWEST PA.
2) MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED. SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST PA.
THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW OFF TO THE EAST
OF OUR CWA. SATELLITE SHOWS SHALLOW CU DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS
LINE, BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1500
TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH 25 TO
35 KNOTS OF SHEAR, SO IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
PA LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE FARTHER INTO CENTRAL PA AND WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT SOUTH OF I-80.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY DAY, OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA. THE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE COMING WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK
AND SPC HAS MUCH OF THE REGION OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL, AND WPC HAS PLACED ALL OF CENTRAL PA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS, BUT THE DETAILS WILL
BE WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NW PA WILL GRADUALLY
TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DECREASING
IN INTENSITY. CURRENT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
TRACKING TOWARDS BFD; HOWEVER, LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER
LIGHTNING WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST BASE ON SIMILAR STORMS IN
THE AREA. THUS, HAVE KEPT THE PROB30 GROUP AND NARROWED DOWN THE
TIMEFRAME FOR AN HOUR WHERE TSRA/SHRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY.
RADAR DOES OUTLINES SOME SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THESE
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER EAST AND IMPACTING UNV/IPT THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUD AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT BFD WHERE SHRA/TSRA IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL AT UNV; HOWEVER, 25TH PERCENTILE MEMBERS OF THE
HREF ENSEMBLE OUTLINES VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AIRFIELD. THUS,
HAVE KEPT UNV AND IPT VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PACKAGE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS AT 00Z WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BUT
IMPACTS AT AOO/MDT/LNS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT JST DOES WARRANT SOME MENTIONS
OF MVFR-TO-IFR CEILINGS AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS POTENTIAL
BASED ON A HREF/GLAMP MODEL GUIDANCE BLEND.
AFTER SUNRISE, FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIKELY MIX OUT QUICKLY AND LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION MENTIONS LIKELY COME AFTER 00Z MONDAY, THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP ANY SHRA MENTIONS OUT OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...MOSTLY DRY, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR W PA.
MON-THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...BEATY
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