375
FXUS61 KCTP 090637
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
237 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXPECT CURRENT NEAR-SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, BUT
ONE OR TWO MAY STILL END UP PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.
* EXPANDED MENTIONS OF FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR-SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW WILL BE ON A
GRADUAL DOWN/WEAKING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
2) MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR-SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DOWN/WEAKING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.
STORMS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM WESTERN PA AT 10 PM EDT. SOME
WERE MORE-POTENT OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS, BUT HAVE BEEN ON THE
DOWN-TREND AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL STORMS AT THIS TIME, AND A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS BEGUN FOR THE PLACES THAT RECIVED HEAVIER
RAIN EARLIER IUN THE EVENING. RAIN GAUGE IN GRAND VALLEY HAS
OVER 4" THIS EVENING. IF THAT IS ACCURATE, THE RADAR ESTIMATES
ARE UNDERDOING WHAT HAS FALLEN. TOO SPARSE OF COVERAGE TO GO
WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL COVER WHAT NEEDS TO BE
COVERED WITH TIMELY WARNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY DAY, OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA. THE
BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE COMING WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS NEXT WEEK
AND SPC HAS MUCH OF THE REGION OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS
WELL, AND WPC HAS PLACED ALL OF CENTRAL PA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD RISKS, BUT THE DETAILS WILL
BE WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
A SW-NE AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE (AROUND 1.5" PWATS) AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DOWNTRENDING AS WE HEAD INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM &
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN LEFT EXIT OF WEAKENING JET STREAK AT 250
MB. AMPLE MOISTURE (SURFACE TD AROUND 70F REGIONWIDE) MAY RESULT
IN LOW STRATUS (MAINLY MVFR-IFR) ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AT KBFD/KJST (08Z-14Z SUNDAY). AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE (PRIMARILY
NORTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT)
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WITH REGIONWIDE VFR &
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KBFD/KIPT) CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AND BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS (HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY TRANSPORT 30 KT WINDS DOWN FROM LLJ
AT 925 MB).
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO/BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...TEARE
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