412
FXUS61 KCTP 091055
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXPANDED MENTION OF FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY FOR TODAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY FOR TODAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON MONDAY.
ONE AREA OF STRONG STORMS JUST SOUTHWEST OF SOMERSET CO.
THESE SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT COLD FRONT
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST STILL. MODELS BRING IN LOWER DEWPT
AIR INTO CENTRAL PA LATER TODAY, SO WILL GO WITH THE DRY
MODEL SOLUTION FOR NOW, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE SOMETHING
POPS UP TODAY.
AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN IN PAST DAYS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, GIVEN RISE TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THIS POINT, LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST, MORE LIKE
OHIO INTO WV. NAM LOWERS DEWPOINTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF DRY WEATHER AFTER EARLY TUE.
COOLER FOR LATE WEEK, BUT WITH WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, COULD STILL BE WET AT TIMES.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE 06Z TAF / PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PROB30S FOR -SHRA BETWEEN AROUND 09Z-12Z MONDAY WERE INTRODUCED
FOR KBFD/KIPT/KUNV, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW, WITH POSSIBLE 5SM MENTIONED
FOR KBFD AND 6SM FOR KIPT/KUNV.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SW-NE AXIS OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE (AROUND 1.5" PWATS) AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DOWNTRENDING AS WE HEAD INTO THE DIURNAL MINIMUM & UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT IN LEFT EXIT OF WEAKENING JET STREAK AT 250 MB. AMPLE
MOISTURE (SURFACE TD AROUND 70F REGIONWIDE) MAY RESULT IN LOW
STRATUS (MAINLY MVFR-IFR) ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT
KBFD/KJST (08Z-14Z SUNDAY). AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE (PRIMARILY
NORTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT)
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WITH REGIONWIDE VFR &
WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY, PRIMARILY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS (KBFD/KIPT) CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS AND BRIEFLY GUSTY
WINDS (HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY TRANSPORT 30 KT WINDS DOWN FROM LLJ
AT 925 MB).
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...TEARE
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