562
FXUS61 KCTP 091722
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
122 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXPANDED MENTION OF FOG TO MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY FOR TODAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MAINLY DRY FOR TODAY, THOUGH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON MONDAY.
ONE AREA OF STRONG STORMS JUST SOUTHWEST OF SOMERSET CO.
THESE SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT COLD FRONT
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST STILL. MODELS BRING IN LOWER DEWPT
AIR INTO CENTRAL PA LATER TODAY, SO WILL GO WITH THE DRY
MODEL SOLUTION FOR NOW, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE SOMETHING
POPS UP TODAY.
AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN IN PAST DAYS.
WARM AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, GIVEN RISE TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AT THIS POINT, LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST, MORE LIKE
OHIO INTO WV. NAM LOWERS DEWPOINTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY,
SUPPORTING MORE IN THE WAY OF DRY WEATHER AFTER EARLY TUE.
COOLER FOR LATE WEEK, BUT WITH WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, COULD STILL BE WET AT TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FORECAST THEN BEGINS TO BECOME
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BFD, JST, UNV, AND IPT ARE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS, POTENTIALLY SEEING
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR OR IFR. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS PRECIP AT BFD AND POSSIBLY JST AS WELL.
THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION. POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINIMAL IMPACT, TO A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL PA. JST AND AOO WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO 18Z, SO PROB30S HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT
THOSE TWO SITES FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MARTIN
KEY MESSAGES...MARTIN
DISCUSSION...MARTIN
AVIATION...BAUCO
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