206
FXUS61 KCTP 102346
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
746 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SVR WATCHES ARE DONE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING, BUT WILL BE MUCH LESS TROUBLE.
2) HUMID WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING, BUT WILL BE
MUCH LESS TROUBLE.
JUST A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CLINTON AND LYCOMING COUNTIES AT
5 PM, AND WHILE THEY HAVE LOST THEIR LIGHTNING, THEY ARE
SPINNING AND ONE HAS SPLIT INTO TWO. SO, WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THEM. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL STAY
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
JUST AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
PREVIOUS...
MCS MOVING OFF TO OUR E AT 4 PM. ONLY A FEW OF THE SE COUNTIES
ARE LEFT IN THE WATCH, AS THEY STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL LEFT
FOR SEVERE WX. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA. BUT, THAT IS OF NO CONCERN FOR SEVERE WX. CAN'T RULE OUT A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR OUT OF ONE OF THESE STRAGGLERS OR SOMETHING THAT
MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING. BUT, THE OVERALL THREATS FOR SVR AND
FF ARE VERY LOW.
-----------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: HUMID WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
MIDWEEK
MODEL TRENDS ARE FOCUSING PRIMARY RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA ON TUESDAY. THIS AREA LIES
CLOSEST TO THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WITHIN VERY
MOIST INSTABILITY GRADIENT. SPC AND WPC HAVE OUTLOOKED THIS
AREA (SW PA) WITH A A LEVEL 2/5 SEVERE STORM RISK AND 2/4
EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTERACT WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE COMBINATION
OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND REPEATED FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC EXCESSIVE
RAIN OUTLOOKS (EROS) HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/WEST AND
ONLY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA ON DAYS 3-5 OR
WED-FRI.
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LESS
HUMID (MORE REFRESHING) AS PUSH OF RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ACCOMPANIES SEASONABLY STRONG/CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN CENTRAL PA, BUT ANY ISOLATED OVERNIGHT
-RA IS MOST LIKELY FROM UPSLOPE EFFECTS AT JST AND BFD.
CONDITIONS WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. PATCHY -RA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AND IFR
VISIBILITIES IS ONLY CONFIDENT AT BFD. ELSEWHERE, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MIST AND SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING
LOWER AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IN THE LATER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH FOR IMPACTS AT ANY ONE SITE YET, RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH. STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
CAUSE RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
JST AND AOO.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBRECH/TYBURSKI
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