204
FXUS61 KCTP 111837
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY SOMERSET COUNTY WHERE
EARLIER TRAINING TSRA FOR OVER 2 HOURS LED TO 2 FFWS (ONE
BEING UPGRADED TO CONSIDERABLE).
KEY MESSAGES
1) HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND A 3RD ROUND LATE TONIGHT.
2) MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND A 3RD ROUND LATE TONIGHT.
VERY BUSY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING STILL ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOMERSET CTY,
MAINLY IN THE SW CORNER OF THE COUNTY, NEAR CONFLUENCE WHERE
WATER RESCUES WERE OCCURRING AND THE YOUGHIOGHENY RIVER ROSE
ABOUT 9 FEET IN JUST 2-3 HOURS.
THIS INITIAL MCS THAT CAUSED THE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES AND
TRAINING TSRA ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS IS RACING TO THE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
DRIER FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING (VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY),
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR
TSRA, LIKELY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
STATE.
MOST PLACES IN THE CWA WILL SEE A FEW TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH SIMILAR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT. LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE 2-3 TSRA TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
CONSIDERING PWAT VALUES OVER 1.6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY,
BUT LINGERING PWATS OVER 1.4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A SLOWLY SWD MOVING COLD FRONT SETTLING OVER
THE VIRGINIAS WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSRA ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WED INTO THURSDAY.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A PUSH OF RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES
SEASONABLY STRONG/CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES DIP TO 1 SIGMA BELOW
NORMAL, OR UNDER 0.8 OF AN INCH FOR LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDS AS OF 18Z TUE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN AIRFIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD MCS AND
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TO ITS NORTH. MUCH OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS MISSING PA, PASSING TO THE SOUTH,
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
RING OF FIRE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT BFD (50 PCT CHC) AS WELL AS LOW CIGS
ESP AT JST (60 PCT CHC OF IFR OR LOWER). CONDITIONS WILL TREND
TOWARDS VFR AREAWIDE BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON, BEFORE ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/DANGELO
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/TYBURSKI
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