043
FXUS61 KCTP 111900
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD THURSDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
LATE WEEK
2) SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK
PARADE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS
EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN PA FOR THE TIME
BEING. FARTHER TO THE EAST, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MORE SUNSHINE
BENEATH A CIRRUS CANOPY HAS DRIVEN TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S
SUPPORTING MODESTLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WATER LOADING
HIGHER PWAT AIR WOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
A WATCH ISSUANCE IS 5% PER MCD #1928.
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE PRECIP PATTERN EVOLVES FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT REMAINS QUITE LOW. THIS IS
DUE IN A LARGE PART TO HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE CAM SIGNALS. WE
WILL LET THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOMERSET COUNTY RIDE FOR NOW AND
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO ASSESS RADAR/MODEL TRENDS. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY GROWS WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK. SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE RISK OF SHOWERS AND HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY; HOWEVER TOMORROW (8/12) APPEARS
TO MARK A NADIR IN BOTH SEVERE STORM AND FLASH FLOOD RISK.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
COMFORTABLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER (LESS HUMID) AIR
ACCOMPANIES SEASONABLY STRONG/CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL FACILITATE PLEASANT DAYS AND CRISP
NIGHTS (40S AND 50S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT/AM SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDS AS OF 18Z TUE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN AIRFIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD MCS AND
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TO ITS NORTH. MUCH OF THE STRONG
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS MISSING PA, PASSING TO THE SOUTH,
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
RING OF FIRE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT BFD (50 PCT CHC) AS WELL AS LOW CIGS
ESP AT JST (60 PCT CHC OF IFR OR LOWER). CONDITIONS WILL TREND
TOWARDS VFR AREAWIDE BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON, BEFORE ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ033.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/TYBURSKI
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