130
FXUS61 KCTP 120159
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
959 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
LATE WEEK.
2) SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
CONVECTION ALSO WAS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CI DECK, WHICH
RESULTED IN BETTER HEATING. ALSO THERE WAS SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE WIND FIELD JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT, IN
SPOTS LIKE IPT.
ANYWAY, THE CONVECTION IS LARGELY OVER WITH ACROSS THE NORTH.
LOOKING TO FURTHER TO THE WEST TO OHIO AND POINTS WEST, NOT
SEEING MUCH GOING ON, EVEN WITH RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA. SPC HAS TRIMMED THE OUTLOOK BACK
TO THE WEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AS OF LATE EVENING, BUT STILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORE INFORMATION BELOW.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY GROWS WITH TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK. SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE RISK OF SHOWERS AND HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY; HOWEVER TOMORROW (8/12) APPEARS
TO MARK A NADIR IN BOTH SEVERE STORM AND FLASH FLOOD RISK.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
COMFORTABLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER (LESS HUMID) AIR
ACCOMPANIES SEASONABLY STRONG/CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL FACILITATE PLEASANT DAYS AND CRISP
NIGHTS (40S AND 50S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT/AM SATURDAY).
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR AS OF 00Z. A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACCROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA CURRENTLY, BUT
IMPACTS TO TO SIDES REMAIN ROUGHLY 30% OVER THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND DISSAPATE WITH TIME.
VFR IS EXPECTE TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE RING OF FIRE
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT BFD (50 PCT CHC) AS WELL AS LOW CIGS ESP AT JST
(60 PCT CHC OF IFR OR LOWER). CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
AREAWIDE BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON, BEFORE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOP AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...COLBERT/BOWEN
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