421
FXUS61 KCTP 120758
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
358 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
2) SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WARM, HUMID AIR TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT WIND AND THE CLEARING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS EARLY TODAY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
MAINLY LIGHT VALLEY FOG. MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AND DRY, WITH A LIGHT NW BREEZE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE, AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OVER THE WEST -
FRESHENING TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WNW JET MAX APPROACHING FROM THE GLAKES REGION.
HREF'S MU CAPE RISING TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WILL CREATE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATELY STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FROM PEAK GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS AND
SMALL HAIL.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
COMFORTABLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER (LESS HUMID) AIR
ACCOMPANIES SEASONABLY STRONG/CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL FACILITATE PLEASANT DAYS AND CRISP
NIGHTS (40S AND 50S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT/AM SATURDAY).
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CENTRAL PA TAF SITES WERE REPORTING VFR AS OF 08Z, WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF KBFD AND KJST RESPECTIVELY, WHERE 1/2SM FOG AND
LOW CEILING WERE OCCURRING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
AFTER 13Z TODAY WITH VFR DOMINATING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK
ACROSS NORTHERN PA WITH STORMS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
BRINGING BRIEF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/COLBERT/BOWEN
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