410
FXUS61 KCTP 121118
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
718 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
2) SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HUMID WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WARM, HUMID AIR TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (SE
HALF OF THE CWA) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY (NW) BUT GENERALLY DRY, WITH
A LIGHT NW BREEZE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AND A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OVER THE WEST - FRESHENING TO AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR STREAMING NE ABOVE THE SHALLOW
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE AMOUNTS STRATUS AND STRATOCU THIS
MORNING, BUT VERTICAL MIXING WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES BY 14-17Z
KUNV, KAOO AND KJST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DRIFTING SOUTH FROM NEW YORK STATE AND A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WNW JET MAX APPROACHING FROM THE GLAKES
REGION. HREF'S MU CAPE RISING TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WILL
CREATE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATELY STRONG UPDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE FROM PEAK GUSTS OF 40-45
KTS AND SMALL HAIL.
-----------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEASONABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
COMFORTABLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER (LESS HUMID) AIR
ACCOMPANIES SEASONABLY STRONG/CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL PWATS WILL FACILITATE PLEASANT DAYS AND CRISP
NIGHTS (40S AND 50S MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT/AM SATURDAY).
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MUCH OF TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (SE
HALF OF THE CWA) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY (NW) BUT GENERALLY DRY, WITH
A LIGHT NW BREEZE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AND A
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OVER THE WEST - FRESHENING TO AROUND
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR STREAMING NE ABOVE THE SHALLOW
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WILL LEAD TO VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND
STRATOCU THIS MORNING, BUT VERTICAL MIXING WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES
TO MVFR OR EVEN LOW END VFR BY 14-17Z KUNV, KAOO AND KJST. KMDT
AND KLNS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, WHILE KBFD COULD HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND MUCH OR ALL OF THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SHORTLY BEFORE DUSK
ACROSS NORTHERN PA WITH STORMS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
BRINGING BRIEF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF PA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PA.
SAT...MAINLY VFR.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSS IN SHRA/TSRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page